相关论文: The Maki-Thompson model with random awareness
A finite dimensional abstract approximation and convergence theory is developed for estimation of the distribution of random parameters in infinite dimensional discrete time linear systems with dynamics described by regularly dissipative…
Randomized rumor spreading processes diffuse information on an undirected graph and have been widely studied. In this work, we present a generic framework for analyzing a broad class of such processes on regular graphs. Our analysis is…
Most information spreading models consider that all individuals are identical psychologically. They ignore, for instance, the curiosity level of people, which may indicate that they can be influenced to seek for information given their…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The…
This paper presents an elementary proof of quantitative uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for the Cucker--Smale model under sufficiently strong interaction. The idea is to combine existing finite-time propagation of chaos estimates with…
The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…
Diffusion of innovation can be interpreted as a social spreading phenomena governed by the impact of media and social interactions. Although these mechanisms have been identified by quantitative theories, their role and relative importance…
Consider a finite number of balls initially placed in $L$ bins. At each time step a ball is taken from each non-empty bin. Then all the balls are uniformly reassigned into bins. This finite Markov chain is called Repeated Balls-into-Bins…
We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…
This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…
We construct a new class of infinite-dimensional diffusions taking values in a generalized Kingman simplex. Our model describes the temporal evolution of the relative frequencies of infinitely-many types which are "labeled" by an arbitrary…
In real life, lots of information merges from time to time. To appropriately describe the actual situations, lots of theories have been proposed. Among them, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is a very useful tool in managing uncertain…
We provide finite-sample distribution approximations, that are uniform in the parameter, for inference in linear mixed models. Focus is on variances and covariances of random effects in cases where existing theory fails because their…
Consider an Galton Watson tree of height $m$: each leaf has one of $k$ opinions or not. In other words, for $i \in \{1, . . . , k\}$, $x$ at generation $m$ thinks $i$ with probability $p_i$ and nothing with probability $p_0$. Moreover the…
Stochastic processes can model many emerging phenomena on networks, like the spread of computer viruses, rumors, or infectious diseases. Understanding the dynamics of such stochastic spreading processes is therefore of fundamental interest.…
When modelling metapopulation dynamics, the influence of a single patch on the metapopulation depends on the number of individuals in the patch. Since there is usually no obvious natural upper limit on the number of individuals in a patch,…
Demographic noise causes unlimited population growth in a broad class of models which, without noise, would predict a stable finite population. We study this effect on the example of a stochastic birth-death model which includes…
We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…
We study the interpersonal trust of a population of agents, asking whether chance may decide if a population ends up in a high trust or low trust state. We model this by a discrete time, random matching stochastic coordination game. Agents…