相关论文: Tail-Risk-Safe Monte Carlo Tree Search under PAC-L…

We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance $\tau$. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision…

Proof-Number Search (PNS) and Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have been successfully applied for decision making in a range of games. This paper proposes a new approach called PN-MCTS that combines these two tree-search methods by…

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a ubiquitous decision-making problem that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. Standard formulations exclude risk in decision making. Risk notably complicates the basic reward-maximising…

The performance of Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) strongly depends on the choice of the parameterized quantum circuit to optimize. One of the biggest challenges in VQAs is designing quantum circuits tailored to the particular…

For UAV-aided wireless systems, online path planning attracts much attention recently. To better adapt to the real-time dynamic environment, we, for the first time, propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based path planning scheme. In…

In many problem settings, most notably in game playing, an agent receives a possibly delayed reward for its actions. Often, those rewards are handcrafted and not naturally given. Even simple terminal-only rewards, like winning equals 1 and…

This work investigates Monte-Carlo planning for agents in stochastic environments, with multiple objectives. We propose the Convex Hull Monte-Carlo Tree-Search (CHMCTS) framework, which builds upon Trial Based Heuristic Tree Search and…

Extending Buehler et al.'s 2019 Deep Hedging paradigm, we innovatively employ deep neural networks to parameterize convex-risk minimization (CVaR/ES) for the portfolio tail-risk hedging problem. Through comprehensive numerical experiments…

This paper proposes a new game-search algorithm, PN-MCTS, which combines Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Proof-Number Search (PNS). These two algorithms have been successfully applied for decision making in a range of domains. We define…

Dynamic job shop scheduling, a fundamental combinatorial optimisation problem in various industrial sectors, poses substantial challenges for effective scheduling due to frequent disruptions caused by the arrival of new jobs.…

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of a particular multivariate risk measure, the Covariate-Conditional-Tail-Expectation (CCTE), based on a multivariate statistical depth function. Depth functions have become…

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a search paradigm that first found prominence with its success in the domain of computer Go. Early theoretical work established the soundness and convergence bounds for Upper Confidence bounds applied to…

In large domains, Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) is required to estimate the values of the states as efficiently and accurately as possible. However, the standard update rule in backpropagation assumes a stationary distribution for the…

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying…

This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…

As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…

The BAT-MCS is an integrated Monte Carlo simulation method (MCS) that combines a binary adaptation tree algorithm (BAT) with a self-regulating simulation mechanism. The BAT algorithm operates deterministically, while the Monte Carlo…

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

We consider Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) applied to Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), and the well-known Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm. In UCT, a tree with nodes (states) and edges…