相关论文: Tail-Risk-Safe Monte Carlo Tree Search under PAC-L…

This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…

We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Probabilistic search algorithms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), have proven very effective in solving sequential decision-making tasks under uncertainty. However, interpreting asymmetric search trees that incorporate bandit-based…

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

Online planning in continuous state, action, and observation spaces remains challenging for autonomous systems. While Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) scales effectively via sampling, most continuous (PO)MDP solvers do not exploit…

Lane-free traffic environments allow vehicles to better harness the lateral capacity of the road without being restricted to lane-keeping, thereby increasing the traffic flow rates. As such, we have a distinct and more challenging setting…

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

Despite its groundbreaking success in Go and computer games, Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is computationally expensive as it requires a substantial number of rollouts to construct the search tree, which calls for effective…

Wrong-way risk in counterparty and funding exposures is most dramatic in the situations of systemic crises and tails events. A consistent model of wrong-way risk (WWR) is developed here with the probability-weighted addition of tail events…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has been proposed as a transformative approach to join-order optimization in database query processing, with recent frameworks such as AlphaJoin and HyperQO claiming to outperform traditional methods. However,…

Tree search-based methods have made significant progress in enhancing the code generation capabilities of large language models. However, due to the difficulty in effectively evaluating intermediate algorithmic steps and the inability to…

Standard approaches for global optimization of non-convex functions, such as branch-and-bound, maintain partition trees to systematically prune the domain. The tree size grows exponentially in the number of dimensions. We propose new…

Effective decision-making and problem-solving in conversational systems require the ability to identify and acquire missing information through targeted questioning. A key challenge lies in efficiently narrowing down a large space of…

To solve the problem of lateral and logitudinal joint decision-making of multi-vehicle cooperative driving for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), this paper proposes a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) method with parallel update for…

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…

In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely used approach for policy improvement through search with increasing popularity for real world applications. Due to the sequential and deterministic nature of its search, runtime-scaling of MCTS…