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Competing risk is a common phenomenon when dealing with time-to-event outcomes in biostatistical applications. An attractive estimand in this setting is the "number of life-years lost due to a specific cause of death", Andersen et al.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

In cluster randomized controlled trials (CRCT) with a finite populations, the exact design-based variance of the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE) depends on the joint distribution of unobserved…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-17 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder

Observational studies developing causal machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of individualized treatment effects (ITEs) seldom conduct empirical evaluations to assess the conditional exchangeability assumption. We aimed to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-31 Gerard T. Portela , Jason B. Gibbons , Sebastian Schneeweiss , Rishi J. Desai

For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

In recent years, the field of causal inference from observational data has emerged rapidly. The literature has focused on (conditional) average causal effect estimation. When (remaining) variability of individual causal effects (ICEs) is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-10 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel

Interval identification of parameters such as average treatment effects, average partial effects and welfare is particularly common when using observational data and experimental data with imperfect compliance due to the endogeneity of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-04-09 Sukjin Han , Adam McCloskey

The quantification of treatment effects plays an important role in a wide range of applications, including policy making and bio-pharmaceutical research. In this article, we study the quantile treatment effect (QTE) while addressing two…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-03-25 Jiachen Sun , Yin Xia

In clinical trials, it is often of interest to understand the principal causal effect (PCE), the average treatment effect for a principal stratum (a subset of patients defined by the potential outcomes of one or more post-baseline…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-06 Yongming Qu , Ilya Lipkovich , Stephen J. Ruberg

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

Platform trials are multi-arm designs that simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments for a single disease within the same overall trial structure. Unlike traditional randomized controlled trials, they allow treatment arms to enter and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-16 Michele Santacatterina , Federico Macchiavelli Giron , Xinyi Zhang , Ivan Diaz

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-19 Seyda Betul Aydin , Holger Brandt

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang