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Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between them. We develop augmented inverse…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-08 Corinne Emmenegger , Meta-Lina Spohn , Timon Elmer , Peter Bühlmann

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-27 Julius Owusu , Monika Avila Márquez

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-11 Clément de Chaisemartin

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-02 Alexander W. Levis , Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Luke Keele , Edward H. Kennedy

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data;(b) run a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-09 Kyra Gan , Andrew A. Li , Zachary C. Lipton , Sridhar Tayur

In this paper, we focus on estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a target population when individual-level data from a source population and summary-level data (e.g., first or second moments of certain covariates) from the target…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-18 Rui Chen , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Individualized randomized experiments are central to online platforms for optimizing personalized decisions in complex environments. In two-sided markets, however, standard treatment effect estimation is often invalid due to strong temporal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Shuguang Yu , Ting Li , Yuchen Lu , Chengchun Shi , Fan Zhou , Zhichao Zou , Peng Zhen , Hongtu Zhu

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is meaningful and practical in healthcare. Existing work mainly relies on the strong ignorability assumption that no hidden confounders exist, which may lead to bias…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-16 Ruoqi Liu , Changchang Yin , Ping Zhang

In this paper, we develop inference methods for the distribution of heterogeneous individual treatment effects (ITEs) in the nonseparable triangular model with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrument of Vuong and Xu (2017) and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-22 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Zhengfei Yu

Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-09-25 Brent R. Logan , Rodney Sparapani , Robert E. McCulloch , Purushottam W. Laud

Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-22 Zonghao Chen , Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

In personalised decision making, evidence is required to determine whether an action (treatment) is suitable for an individual. Such evidence can be obtained by modelling treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups. The existing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-24 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Shisheng Zhang , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-07 Iiris Sundin , Peter Schulam , Eero Siivola , Aki Vehtari , Suchi Saria , Samuel Kaski

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo