相关论文: Markovian multivariate Hawkes population processes…

This article presents a Hawkes process model with Markovian baseline intensities for high-frequency order book data modeling. We classify intraday order book trading events into a range of categories based on their order types and the price…

In this paper, we present a kernel-based, multi-task Gaussian Process (GP) model for approximating the underlying function of an individual's mobility state using a time-inhomogeneous Markov Process with two states: moves and pauses. Our…

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

In this work, we propose to catch the complexity of the membrane potential's dynamic of a motoneuron between its spikes, taking into account the spikes from other neurons around. Our approach relies on two types of data: extracellular…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Density dependent Markov population processes with countably many types can often be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, provided that the total…

We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…

The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…

Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known world-wide for each doll's encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we identify a large class of Markov process whose moments are easy to compute by…

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…