相关论文: Zero-Shot Forecasting Mortality Rates: A Global St…

Forecasting state evolution of network systems, such as the spread of information on social networks, is significant for effective policy interventions and resource management. However, the underlying propagation dynamics constantly shift…

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical,…

This study introduces an innovative methodology for mortality forecasting, which integrates signature-based methods within the functional data framework of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model. This new approach, termed the Hyndman-Ullah with…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Recent research on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) has underscored the scarcity of real-world data, often supplemented with synthetic sources in existing datasets, whose generalizability remains however debated. As such, in this work,…

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

A modern paradigm for generalization in machine learning and AI consists of pre-training a task-agnostic foundation model, generally obtained using self-supervised and multimodal contrastive learning. The resulting representations can be…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

Weather station data is a valuable resource for climate prediction, however, its reliability can be limited in remote locations. To compound the issue, making local predictions often relies on sensor data that may not be accessible for a…

Unlike traditional time-series forecasting methods that require extensive in-task data for training, zero-shot forecasting can directly predict future values given a target time series without additional training data. Current zero-shot…

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…

Human experts typically integrate numerical and textual multimodal information to analyze time series. However, most traditional deep learning predictors rely solely on unimodal numerical data, using a fixed-length window for training and…

Using Chronos-2, an open-source time-series foundation model, we evaluate pretrained time-series models for economic and financial forecasting with an emphasis on whether multivariate (MV) inputs improve accuracy relative to univariate (UV)…

Heart disease is a serious global health issue that claims millions of lives every year. Early detection and precise prediction are critical to the prevention and successful treatment of heart related issues. A lot of research utilizes…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

In principle, zero-shot learning makes it possible to train a recognition model simply by specifying the category's attributes. For example, with classifiers for generic attributes like \emph{striped} and \emph{four-legged}, one can…

We propose a multitask pretraining approach ZeroPrompt for zero-shot generalization, focusing on task scaling and zero-shot prompting. While previous models are trained on only a few dozen tasks, we scale to 1,000 tasks for the first time…

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…