相关论文: Zero-Shot Forecasting Mortality Rates: A Global St…

An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Modeling car-following behavior is essential for traffic simulation, analyzing driving patterns, and understanding complex traffic flows with varying levels of autonomous vehicles. Traditional models like the Safe Distance Model and…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…

Accurate wave height prediction is critical for maritime safety and coastal resilience, yet conventional physics-based models and traditional machine learning methods face challenges in computational efficiency and nonlinear dynamics…

Foundation models are trained on vast amounts of data at scale using self-supervised learning, enabling adaptation to a wide range of downstream tasks. At test time, these models exhibit zero-shot capabilities through which they can…

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment…

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

Large-scale contrastive vision-language pre-trained models provide the zero-shot model achieving competitive performance across a range of image classification tasks without requiring training on downstream data. Recent works have confirmed…

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…

The ability to predict future outcomes given control actions is fundamental for physical reasoning. However, such predictive models, often called world models, remains challenging to learn and are typically developed for task-specific…

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…

The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based…

Component obsolescence poses significant challenges in industries reliant on electronic components, causing increased costs and disruptions in the security and availability of systems. Accurate obsolescence risk prediction is essential but…

A systematic comparison of Chronos, a transformer-based time series forecasting framework, against traditional approaches including ARIMA and Prophet. We evaluate these models across multiple time horizons and user categories, with a focus…

High-quality wind power forecasting is crucial for the operation of modern power grids. However, prevailing data-driven paradigms either train a site-specific model which cannot generalize to other locations or rely on fine-tuning of…