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On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful…
In this research, methods and computational results based on statistical analysis and mathematical modelling, data collection in situ in order to make a hazard map of Hanta Virus infection in the region of Araucania, Chile are presented.…
Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several territories in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from South Florida to Brazil and the Caribbean is a highly connected…
Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In…
Infectious diseases on farms pose both public and animal health risks, so understanding how they spread between farms is crucial for developing disease control strategies to prevent future outbreaks. We develop novel Bayesian nonparametric…
Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In…
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…
We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
In 2024, the outbreak of Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) in China, which later spread to the UK and other countries, raised significant public concern. While HMPV typically causes mild symptoms, its effects on vulnerable individuals prompted…
Understanding how genetic changes allow emerging virus strains to escape the protection afforded by vaccination is vital for the maintenance of effective vaccines. In the current work, we use structural and phylogenetic differences between…
Accurate forecasting of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) outbreaks within wild bird populations necessitates models that account for complex, multi-scale transmission patterns driven by diverse factors. While conventional spatiotemporal epidemic…
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…
We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the role of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work on avian influenza in wild bird populations takes into…
The study of mortality and the calculation of excess deaths is a fundamental tool for understanding the effect of epidemics / pandemics and the seasonal cycles of endemic / epidemic diseases such as influenza, which is of great importance…
While digital trace data from sources like search engines hold enormous potential for tracking and understanding human behavior, these streams of data lack information about the actual experiences of those individuals generating the data.…
A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…
Infectious diseases, transmitted directly or indirectly, are among the leading causes of epidemics and pandemics. Consequently, several open challenges exist in predicting epidemic outbreaks, detecting variants, tracing contacts,…
Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…