相关论文: The quest for explosive bubbles in the Indonesian …

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a…

We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative…

This study contributes to the discussion about how higher public debt may not be costly because of the negative interest rate-growth differentials by simulating OLG models introduced by Blanchard (2019) under uncertainty, showing debt and…

We have presented a novel technique of detecting intermittencies in a financial time series of the foreign exchange rate data of U.S.- Euro dollar(US/EUR) using a combination of both statistical and spectral techniques. This has been…

Understanding the stochastic behavior of currency exchange rates is critical for assessing financial stability and anticipating market transitions. In this study, we investigate the empirical dynamics of the USD exchange rate in three…

We consider the currency rates dynamics for 12 currencies, including dollar and euro, with respect to Russian rouble. We prove that the Samuelson model (geometric Brownian motion) is not suitable for this dynamics. We also prove that…

We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that…

This paper uses the concepts of entropy to study the regularity/irregularity of the returns from the Indian Foreign exchange (forex) markets. The Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy statistics which measure the level of repeatability in…

Analogies between the price dynamics in the foreign exchange market and 3-dimensional fully developed turbulence were recently presented in Nature vol. 381, 767-769 (1996). Independently, we have carried out a study comparing the parallel…

Based on a continuous-time stochastic volatility model with a linear drift, we develop a test for explosive behavior in financial asset prices at a low frequency when prices are sampled at a higher frequency. The test exploits the…

Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9…

The multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for US dollar (USD), the British Pound (GBP), the Euro (Euro) and the Japanese Yen (Yen) with respect to the Indian Rupee are analysed for the period 6th January 1999 to 24th July…

The aim of this paper is to dig deeper into understanding the exchange rates and uncertainty dependence. Using the novel Baker et al. (2020)'s daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates, we investigate their extreme tail…

This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address three research questions concerning financial time series. In the first study we apply transfer entropy to drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates, to study their…

Emerging markets such as India provide investors with returns far greater than those in developed markets; taking the average returns from the period 1995 to 2014 the returns are 4.714% to 3.276% of the developed market. The majority of…

In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate…

Based on the Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) methodology, with the universal preferred scaling factor $\lambda \approx 2$, the negative bubble on the oil market in 2014-2016 has been detected. Over the same period a positive bubble on the so…

This study examines how institutional differences and external crises shape volatility dynamics in emerging Asian stock markets. Using daily stock index returns for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines from 2010 to 2024, we estimate…

The recent surge in valuations among AI related firms has renewed concerns that markets may be entering a new phase of speculative exuberance, especially in the technology and semiconductor sectors at the center of the AI investment wave.…

The pricing of currency options is largely dependent on the dynamic relationship between a pair of currencies. Typically, the pricing of options with payoffs dependent on multi-assets becomes tricky for reasons such as the non-Gaussian…