相关论文: Bayesian local clustering of age-period mortality …

Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

In this work we present a spatial approach to model and investigate mortality data referenced over a Lexis structure. We decompose the force of mortality into two interpretable components: a Markov random field, smooth with respect to time,…

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…

Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…