相关论文: A small-area ecological approach for estimating vo…
We present a model of voting behaviour based on a version of aggregated overdispersed multinomial distributions; relative to a similar model by \citet{BP86}, our model is based on more realistic assumptions and free from certain…
We provide a simple formulation of the conditions under which ecological bias should be expected and argue that the bias will affect any method of ecological inference; our claim is supported by formal derivations and several examples where…
The State and its citizens generate lots of data. Once stored and processed, data can help resolve questions in Social Sciences, where it is common to need data in a different level of aggregation than the data is presented. In election…
Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. The sources of influence can be generally divided into external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An…
A model of the opinion dynamics underlying the political decision is proposed. The analysis is restricted to a bipolar scheme with a possible third political area. The interaction among voters is local but the final decision strongly…
This paper deals with the issue of ecological bias in ecological inference. We provide an explicit formulation of the conditions required for the ordinary ecological regression to produce unbiased estimates and argue that, when these…
Despite its shortcomings, cross-level or ecological inference remains a necessary part of some areas of quantitative inference, including in United States voting rights litigation. Ecological inference suffers from a lack of identification…
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a…
We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular…
We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the…
Local opposition to the installation of renewable energy sources is a potential threat to the energy transition. Local communities tend to oppose the construction of energy plants due to the associated negative externalities (the so-called…
This study examines the relationship between ambiguity and the ideological positioning of political parties across the political spectrum. We identify a strong non-monotonic (inverted U-shaped) relationship between party ideology and…
We study monotone ecological inference, a partial identification approach to ecological inference. The approach exploits information about one or both of the following conditional associations: (1) outcome differences between groups within…
Numerous models in opinion dynamics focus on the temporal dynamics within a single electoral unit (e.g., country). The empirical observations, on the other hand, are often made across multiple electoral units (e.g., polling stations) at a…
We discover the mechanism for the transition from self-segregation (into opposing groups) to clustering (towards cautious behaviors) in the evolutionary minority game (EMG). The mechanism is illustrated with a statistical mechanics analysis…
Social networks play an important role in people's daily socialization, particularly through social media platforms, which have become key channels for communication and information dissemination. The digital ecosystem does not only evolve…
Social media users express their political preferences via interaction with other users, by spontaneous declarations or by participation in communities within the network. This makes a social network such as Twitter a valuable data source…
Understanding how sustainable behaviors spread within heterogeneous societies requires the integration of behavioral data, social influence mechanisms, and structured approaches to control. In this paper, we propose a data-driven…
The assembly and persistence of ecological communities can be understood as the result of the interaction and migration of species. Here we study a single community subject to migration from a species pool in which inter-specific…
Uncertainties surrounding the energy transition often lead modelers to present large sets of scenarios that are challenging for policymakers to interpret and act upon. An alternative approach is to define a few qualitative storylines from…