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Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization…

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Accurate and reliable C-arm positioning is essential for fluoroscopy-guided interventions. However, clinical workflows rely on manual alignment that increases radiation exposure and procedural delays. In this work, we present a pipeline…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-10-21 Ahmad Arrabi , Jay Hwasung Jung , Jax Luo , Nathan Franssen , Scott Raymond , Safwan Wshah

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

Depth measures have gained popularity in the statistical literature for defining level sets in complex data structures like multivariate data, functional data, and graphs. Despite their versatility, integrating depth measures into…

Most machine learning-based image segmentation models produce pixel-wise confidence scores that represent the model's predicted probability for each class label at every pixel. While this information can be particularly valuable in…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Bruno Viti , Elias Karabelas , Martin Holler

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-08 Shi Hu , Nicola Pezzotti , Max Welling

A population quantity of interest in statistical shape analysis is the location of landmarks, which are points that aid in reconstructing and representing shapes of objects. We provide an automated, model-based approach to inferring…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-10-16 Justin Strait , Oksana Chkrebtii , Sebastian Kurtek

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the localization of a sound source within adverse acoustic environments. Estimating the position of the source is influenced by various factors, such as noise and reverberation,…

音频与语音处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-01-16 Vadim Rozenfeld , Bracha Laufer Goldshtein

Spatially referenced datasets have become increasingly prevalent across many fields, largely driven by advances in data collection methods such as satellite remote sensing. In many applications, predictions at unobserved locations are…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-19 Isaac Amouzou , Ben Seiyon Lee

Whether learned, simulated, or analytical, approximations of a robot's dynamics can be inaccurate when encountering novel environments. Many approaches have been proposed to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of such methods, i.e.…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-03-14 Luís Marques , Dmitry Berenson

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

In system analysis and design optimization, multiple computational models are typically available to represent a given physical system. These models can be broadly classified as high-fidelity models, which provide highly accurate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-01 Ruda Zhang , Negin Alemazkoor

Probabilistic models must be well calibrated to support reliable decision-making. While calibration in single-output regression is well studied, defining and achieving multivariate calibration in multi-output regression remains considerably…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Naomi Desobry , Elnura Zhalieva , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Landmark Localization plays a very important role in processing medical images as well as in disease identification. However, In medical field, it's a challenging task because of the complexity of medical images and the high requirement of…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-07-13 Wanhong Huang , Chunxi Yang , TianHong Hou

Typically, machine learning models are trained and evaluated without making any distinction between users (e.g, using traditional hold-out and cross-validation). However, this produces inaccurate performance metrics estimates in multi-user…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-11 Enrique Garcia-Ceja , Luciano Garcia-Banuelos , Nicolas Jourdan