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We propose a computationally efficient method to construct nonparametric, heteroscedastic prediction bands for uncertainty quantification, with or without any user-specified predictive model. Our approach provides an alternative to the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-18 Tengyuan Liang

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-07-08 Leying Guan

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

核理论 · 物理学 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

We propose a new Patch-based Iterative Network (PIN) for fast and accurate landmark localisation in 3D medical volumes. PIN utilises a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to learn the spatial relationship between an image patch and…

The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-03 Tianyi Chen , Yingzhou Lu , Nan Hao , Yuanyuan Zhang , Capucine Van Rechem , Jintai Chen , Tianfan Fu

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques,…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-09-07 Anastasios Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) as an indicator of the trustworthiness of automated deep-learning (DL) tools in the context of white matter lesion (WML) segmentation from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of…

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-01 Carlos García Meixide , Michael R. Kosorok , Marcos Matabuena

In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Jake S. Rhodes , Scott D. Brown , J. Riley Wilkinson

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-04-28 Mathieu Cocheteux , Julien Moreau , Franck Davoine

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

We present an automated method for localizing an anatomical landmark in three-dimensional medical images. The method combines two recurrent neural networks in a coarse-to-fine approach: The first network determines a candidate neighborhood…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2017-08-10 Simon Andermatt , Simon Pezold , Michael Amann , Philippe C. Cattin

We introduce Observation-aware Conformal Uncertainty Local-Calibration (OCULAR), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perception information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments.…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2026-05-14 Luís Marques , Dmitry Berenson

Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-14 David Randahl , Jonathan P. Williams , Håvard Hegre

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Visual relocalization is the task of estimating the camera pose given an image it views. Absolute pose regression offers a solution to this task by training a neural network, directly regressing the camera pose from image features. While an…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-04-11 Fereidoon Zangeneh , Amit Dekel , Alessandro Pieropan , Patric Jensfelt

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-02-07 Fabian Küppers