相关论文: Iterated Poisson Processes for Catastrophic Risk M…

In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…

Time series data may exhibit clustering over time and, in a multiple time series context, the clustering behavior may differ across the series. This paper is motivated by the Bayesian non--parametric modeling of the dependence between the…

By explicitly representing the reaction times of discrete chemical systems as the firing times of independent, unit rate Poisson processes, we develop a new adaptive tau-leaping procedure. The procedure developed is novel in that accuracy…

We consider the dynamics of a 1D system evolving according to a deterministic drift and randomly forced by two types of jumps processes, one representing an external, uncontrolled forcing and the other one a control that instantaneously…

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is usually described by a joint model which uses shared or correlated latent effects to capture associations between the two processes. Under this framework, the joint distribution of…

We consider a surplus process of drifted fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst index $H>1/2$, which appears as a functional limit of drifted compound Poisson risk models with correlated claims, and this is a kind of representation of a…

We recently introduced idealized mean-field models for networks of integrate-and-fire neurons with impulse-like interactions -- the so-called delayed Poissonian mean-field models. Such models are prone to blowups: for a strong enough…

In this work, we derive a complete characterization of all ruin-inducing probability measures that preserve the structure of a given compound renewal process in terms of suitable pairs of functions $(\gamma,\delta)$. This result allows us…

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…

The two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Process (PDP), a generalisation of the Dirichlet Process, is increasingly being used for probabilistic modelling in discrete areas such as language technology, bioinformatics, and image analysis. There is…

Neural computations arising from myriads of interactions between spiking neurons can be modeled as network dynamics with punctuate interactions. However, most relevant dynamics do not allow for computational tractability. To circumvent this…

We analyze extensions of the Poisson process in which any interarrival time that exceeds a fixed value $r$ is counted as an interarrival of duration $r$. In the engineering application that initiated this work, one part is tested at a time,…

We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive earthquakes, based on the two-dimensional (2-D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff)…

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

We introduce and study a multiparameter version of the generalized counting process (GCP), where there is a possibility of finitely many arrivals simultaneously. We call it the multiparameter GCP. In a particular case, it is uniquely…

This paper introduces a novel family of geostatistical models designed to capture complex features beyond the reach of traditional Gaussian processes. The proposed family, termed the Poisson-Gaussian Mixture Process (POGAMP), is…

In a recent development in the literature, a new temporal rainfall model, based on the Bartlett-Lewis clustering mechanism and intended for sub-hourly application, was introduced. That model replaced the rectangular rain cells of the…

Cascades of Poisson processes are probabilistic models for spatio-temporal phenomena in which (i) previous events may trigger subsequent events, and (ii) both the background and triggering processes are conditionally Poisson. Such phenomena…

This paper studies the joint moments of a compound discounted renewal process observed at different times with each arrival removed from the system after a random delay. This process can be used to describe the aggregate (discounted)…

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2)…