相关论文: Change point analysis with irregular signals

Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change-point…

The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…

This paper develops change-point methods for the spectrum of a locally stationary time series. We focus on series with a bounded spectral density that change smoothly under the null hypothesis but exhibits change-points or becomes less…

This paper considers the problem of estimating a change point in the covariance matrix in a sequence of high-dimensional vectors, where the dimension is substantially larger than the sample size. A two-stage approach is proposed to…

Motivated by an example from remote sensing of gas emission sources, we derive two novel change point procedures for multivariate time series where, in contrast to classical change point literature, the changes are not required to be…

In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical…

While many approaches have been proposed for discovering abrupt changes in piecewise constant signals, few methods are available to capture these changes in piecewise polynomial signals. In this paper, we propose a change point detection…

It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…

The COVID-19 pandemic started in China in December 2019 and quickly spread to several countries. The consequences of this pandemic are incalculable, causing the death of millions of people and damaging the global economy. To achieve…

In the sequential change-point detection literature, most research specifies a required frequency of false alarms at a given pre-change distribution $f_{\theta}$ and tries to minimize the detection delay for every possible post-change…

This paper considers the problem of joint change detection and identification assuming multiple composite postchange hypotheses. We propose a multihypothesis changepoint detection-identification procedure that controls the probabilities of…

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of multivariate or non-Euclidean observations. We study a nonparametric framework that utilizes similarity information…

We present a robust data-driven machine learning analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic from its early infection dynamics, specifically infection counts over time. The goal is to extract actionable public health insights. These insights include…

In this paper, we propose a class of monitoring statistics for a mean shift in a sequence of high-dimensional observations. Inspired by the recent U-statistic based retrospective tests developed by Wang et al.(2019) and Zhang et al.(2020),…

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

In this paper we propose a three stages analysis of the evolution of Covid19 in Romania. There are two main issues when it comes to pandemic prediction. The first one is the fact that the numbers reported of infected and recovered are…

This chapter overviews some of the work on detecting and estimating the location of a single change. We first consider the most common change-point problem, namely that of detecting a change in mean, before looking at extensions to…

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…