相关论文: Change point analysis with irregular signals

The aim of online monitoring is to issue an alarm as soon as there is significant evidence in the collected observations to suggest that the underlying data generating mechanism has changed. This work is concerned with open-end,…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

The declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic has largely amplified the spread of related information on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, and WeChat.Unlike the previous studies which focused on how to detect the misinformation or fake…

Sudden changes are ubiquitous in nature. Identifying them is of crucial importance for a number of applications in medicine, biology, geophysics, and social sciences. Here we investigate the problem in the quantum domain, considering a…

In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…

We suggest a novel procedure for online change point detection. Our approach expands an idea of maximizing a discrepancy measure between points from pre-change and post-change distributions. This leads to flexible algorithms suitable for…

This paper considers the problems of detecting a change point and estimating the location in the correlation matrices of a sequence of high-dimensional vectors, where the dimension is large enough to be comparable to the sample size or even…

BACKGROUND An alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 to estimate the size, lengths and ending…

We consider the problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding…

Introduction: Endpoint choice for randomized controlled trials of treatments for COVID-19 is complex. A new disease brings many uncertainties, but trials must start rapidly. COVID-19 is heterogeneous, ranging from mild disease that improves…

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…

The COVID-19 virus has caused a global pandemic since March 2020. The World Health Organization (WHO) has provided guidelines on how to reduce the spread of the virus and one of the most important measures is social distancing. Maintaining…

Although there is substantial literature on identifying structural changes for continuous spatio-temporal processes, the same is not true for categorical spatio-temporal data. This work bridges that gap and proposes a novel spatio-temporal…

For sequential data, a change point is a moment of abrupt regime switch in data streams. Such changes appear in different scenarios, including simpler data from sensors and more challenging video surveillance data. We need to detect…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

COVID-19 has challenged health systems to learn how to learn. This paper describes the context, methods and challenges for learning to improve COVID-19 care at one academic health center. Challenges to learning include: (1) choosing a right…

We consider the problem of change-point estimation of the instantaneous phase of an observed time series. Such change points, or phase shifts, can be markers of information transfer in complex systems; their analysis occurring in geology,…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in change point regressions, where the signal can be piecewise polynomial of arbitrary but fixed degree. That is we seek disjoint intervals which, uniformly at a given confidence level,…