相关论文: Accounting for reporting delays in real-time phylo…
We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID--19 data provided by government health agencies of eleven different countries. Instead of using the (exact or approximate) solutions to the SIR (or other) model(s) to fit the…
We examine genetic statistics used in the study of structured populations. In a 1999 paper, Wakeley observed that the coalescent process associated with the finite island model can be decomposed into a scattering phase and a collecting…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
Countries officially record the number of COVID-19 cases based on medical tests of a subset of the population with unknown participation bias. For prevalence estimation, the official information is typically discarded and, instead, small…
The usual development cycles are too slow for the development of vaccines, diagnostics and treatments in pandemics such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Given the pressure in such a situation, there is a risk that findings of early…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for governments and healthcare systems worldwide, highlighting the critical importance of understanding the factors that contribute to virus transmission. This study aimed to…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
Statistical matching methods are widely used in the social and health sciences to estimate causal effects using observational data. Often the objective is to find comparable groups with similar covariate distributions in a dataset, with the…
The statistical dynamics of a pathogen within a population depend on a range of factors: population density, the effectiveness and investment into social distancing, public policy measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are…
In real-time forecasting in public health, data collection is a non-trivial and demanding task. Often after initially released, it undergoes several revisions later (maybe due to human or technical constraints) - as a result, it may take…
Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…
A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making because of the need to continuously adapt decisions to rapidly changing evidence and available data. For example, which countermeasures are appropriate at a particular stage of the…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
Coronavirus case-count data has influenced government policies and drives most epidemiological forecasts. Limited testing is cited as the key driver behind minimal information on the COVID-19 pandemic. While expanded testing is laudable,…
Phylogenetic trees are widely used to understand the evolutionary history of organisms. Tree shapes provide information about macroevolutionary processes. However, macroevolutionary models are unreliable for inferring the true processes…
As the COVID-19 ravaging through the globe, accurate forecasts of the disease spread is crucial for situational awareness, resource allocation, and public health decision-making. Alternative to the traditional disease surveillance data…
We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who recovered from the disease as quickly as…
Fixed tree topologies are widely used in phylodynamic analyses to reduce computational burden, yet the consequences of this assumption remain insufficiently understood. Here, we systematically assess the impact of various fixed-topology…
Pooled testing offers an efficient solution to the unprecedented testing demands of the COVID-19 pandemic, although with potentially lower sensitivity and increased costs to implementation in some settings. Assessments of this trade-off…
The evolution of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often…