相关论文: A Bayesian workflow for securitizing casualty insu…

Bayesian inference has many advantages in robotic motion planning over four perspectives: The uncertainty quantification of the policy, safety (risk-aware) and optimum guarantees of robot motions, data-efficiency in training of…

A method for conducting Bayesian elicitation and learning in risk assessment is presented. It assumes that the risk process can be described as a fault tree. This is viewed as a belief network, for which prior distributions on primary event…

To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved…

Linear programming is widely used for decision-making in science, engineering, and operations research, yet in many modern applications the coefficients entering the constraints and objective are not known exactly and must be learned from…

In today's data-driven world, the proliferation of publicly available information raises security concerns due to the information leakage (IL) problem. IL involves unintentionally exposing sensitive information to unauthorized parties via…

One of the impediments in advancing actuarial research and developing open source assets for insurance analytics is the lack of realistic publicly available datasets. In this work, we develop a workflow for synthesizing insurance datasets…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

This paper focuses on modelling surrender time for policyholders in the context of life insurance. In this setup, a large lapse rate at the first months of a contract is often observed, with a decrease in this rate after some months. The…

It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…

In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties.…

Large language models often produce confident but incorrect outputs, creating a critical need for reliable uncertainty quantification with formal abstention guarantees. We introduce information-lift certificates that compare model…

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…

The interpretation of seismic images faces challenges due to the presence of several uncertainty sources. Uncertainties exist in data measurements, source positioning, and subsurface geophysical properties. Understanding uncertainties' role…

This paper is motivated by computational challenges arising in multi-period valuation in insurance. Aggregate insurance liability cashflows typically correspond to stochastic payments several years into the future. However, insurance…

Imagine a world where clinical trials need far fewer patients to achieve the same statistical power, thanks to the knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs). We present a novel framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of adverse…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational techniques for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows for data analysis. Typical problems in Bayesian workflows…

We consider the problem of aggregating pairwise comparisons to obtain a consensus ranking order over a collection of objects. We use the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model which allows us to probabilistically describe pairwise…