相关论文: A Bayesian workflow for securitizing casualty insu…

In competitive industries, a reliable yield forecasting is a prime factor to accurately determine the production costs and therefore ensure profitability. Indeed, quantifying the risks long before the effective manufacturing process enables…

The increasing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) makes industrial automation challenging. Large amounts of data recorded by sensors need to be processed to adequately perform tasks such as diagnosis in case of fault. A promising…

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from…

This paper addresses the problem of maintaining safety during training in Reinforcement Learning (RL), such that the safety constraint violations are bounded at any point during learning. In a variety of RL applications the safety of the…

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has posed significant challenges to society, necessitating the urgent development of effective risk management strategies. From the early informal community-based risk sharing mechanisms to…

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a highly effective tool for the safe online optimization of systems, due to its high sample efficiency and noise robustness. To further enhance its efficiency, reduced physical models of the system can…

Critical infrastructure increasingly relies on interconnected cyber-physical systems whose security incidents can escalate rapidly into safety and operational failures. Existing decision-support approaches struggle to support real-time…

When working with real-world insurance data, practitioners often encounter challenges during the data preparation stage that can undermine the statistical validity and reliability of downstream modeling. This study illustrates that…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) using a regression procedure to fit relationships between predictor and target variables are widely used in automobile insurance data. Here, in the process of ratemaking and in order to compute the premiums…

This paper addresses the ``curse of dimensionality'' in the loss valuation of credit risk models. A dimension reduction methodology based on the Bayesian filter and smoother is proposed. This methodology is designed to achieve a fast and…

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use external trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods facilitate borrowing which is "dynamic" in the sense that…

Operational risk is challenging to quantify because of the broad range of categories (fraud, technological issues, natural disasters) and the heavy-tailed nature of realized losses. Operational risk modeling requires quantifying how these…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of…

In this manuscript we propose a method for pricing insurance products that cover not only traditional risks, but also unforeseen ones. By considering the Poisson process parameter to be a mixed random variable, we capture the heterogeneity…

The Power Law Process, also known as Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, has been used in various aspects, one of which is the software reliability assessment. Specifically, by using its intensity function to compute the rate of change of a…

Actuaries use predictive modeling techniques to assess the loss cost on a contract as a function of observable risk characteristics. State-of-the-art statistical and machine learning methods are not well equipped to handle hierarchically…

Time series analysis applied to occupational accident reports is a powerful tool for understanding the evolution of occupational accidents over time. It provides valuable information to make informed decisions. In this study, data from…

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…

Many Bayesian model selection problems, such as variable selection or cluster analysis, start by setting prior model probabilities on a structured model space. Based on a chosen loss function between models, model selection is often…

We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative…