相关论文: A Bayesian workflow for securitizing casualty insu…

Firms should keep capital to offer sufficient protection against the risks they are facing. In the insurance context methods have been developed to determine the minimum capital level required, but less so in the context of firms with…

Competing risk models are survival models with several events of interest acting in competition and whose occurrence is only observed for the event that occurs first in time. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to these models in which…

By building on a recently introduced genetic-inspired attribute-based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel methodology to compute construction univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at a situational…

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label…

A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models.…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to calibrate and select models by comparing observed data to simulated data. This technique bypasses the use of the likelihood and requires only the ability to…

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately…

Workplace injuries result in substantial human and financial losses. As reported by the International Labour Organization (ILO), there are more than 374 million work-related injuries reported every year. In this study, we investigate the…

Scenario-based testing of automated driving functions has become a promising method to reduce time and cost compared to real-world testing. In scenario-based testing automated functions are evaluated in a set of pre-defined scenarios. These…

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…

We perform a quantitative analysis of the gain/loss asymmetry for financial time series by using a Bayesian approach. In particular, we focus on some selected indices and analyze the statistical significance of the asymmetry amount through…

When using Bayesian inference to support conservative software reliability assessments, it is useful to consider a collection of Bayesian inference problems, with the aim of determining the worst-case value (from this collection) for a…

Competing risks models for a repairable system subject to several failure modes are discussed. Under minimal repair, it is assumed that each failure mode has a power law intensity. An orthogonal reparametrization is used to obtain an…

We derive a family of loss functions to train models in the presence of sampling bias. Examples are when the prevalence of a pathology differs from its sampling rate in the training dataset, or when a machine learning practioner rebalances…

Growing anthropogenic pressures have increased the need for robust predictive models. Meeting this demand requires approaches that can handle bigger data to yield forecasts that capture the variability and underlying uncertainty of…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Illness-death models are a class of stochastic models inside the multi-state framework. In those models, individuals are allowed to move over time between different states related to illness and death. They are of special interest when…

Before autonomous systems can be deployed in safety-critical applications, we must be able to understand and verify the safety of these systems. For cases where the risk or cost of real-world testing is prohibitive, we propose a…

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

Experience rating in insurance uses a Bayesian credibility model to upgrade the current premiums of a contract by taking into account policyholders' attributes and their claim history. Most data-driven models used for this task are…