相关论文: A Bayesian workflow for securitizing casualty insu…

We propose a stochastic model allowing property and casualty insurers with multiple business lines to measure their liabilities for incurred claims risk and calculate associated capital requirements. Our model includes many desirable…

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

Loss development modelling is the actuarial practice of predicting the total 'ultimate' losses incurred on a set of policies once all claims are reported and settled. This poses a challenging prediction task as losses frequently take years…

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…

We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…

The collective risk model (CRM) for frequency and severity is an important tool for retail insurance ratemaking, macro-level catastrophic risk forecasting, as well as operational risk in banking regulation. This model, which is initially…

There is increasing interest in flexible parametric models for the analysis of time-to-event data, yet Bayesian approaches that offer incorporation of prior knowledge remain underused. A flexible Bayesian parametric model has recently been…

A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank using only internal loss data, and takes into…

Machine Learning (ML) models are increasingly integrated into safety-critical systems, such as autonomous vehicle platooning, to enable real-time decision-making. However, their inherent imperfection introduces a new class of failure:…

Causal probabilistic graph-based models have gained widespread utility, enabling the modeling of cause-and-effect relationships across diverse domains. With their rising adoption in new areas, such as automotive system safety and machine…

We propose a model-agnostic framework for short-term occupational accident forecasting that leverages safety inspections and models accident occurrences as binary time series. The approach generates daily predictions, which are then…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

Recent transformative and disruptive advancements in the insurance industry have embraced various InsurTech innovations. In particular, with the rapid progress in data science and computational capabilities, InsurTech is able to integrate a…

Accidental damage is a typical component of motor insurance claim. Modeling of this nature generally involves analysis of past claim history and different characteristics of the insured objects and the policyholders. Generalized linear…

Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance…

In-context learning (ICL) is a powerful technique for getting language models to perform complex tasks with no training updates. Prior work has established strong correlations between the number of in-context examples provided and the…

This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…

This paper describes a method for a model-based analysis of clinical safety data called multivariate Bayesian logistic regression (MBLR). Parallel logistic regression models are fit to a set of medically related issues, or response…