相关论文: Sideward contact tracing in an epidemic model with…

We consider a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on random trees and on the configuration model. On a rooted tree, where initially all individuals are susceptible apart from the root which is…

Coinfection is the process by which a host that is infected with a pathogen becomes infected by a second pathogen at a later point in time. An immunosuppressant host response to a primary disease can facilitate spreading of a subsequent…

Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…

Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological…

Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in complex networks, considering that not all individuals in the population interact in the same way between them. This heterogeneity between contacts is modeled by a continuous disorder. In…

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here, we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the…

We are interested in describing the infected size of the SIS Epidemic model using Birth-Death Markov process. The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is defined within a population of constant size $M$; the size is kept constant by…

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…

Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…

We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…

Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…

The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…

Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…

Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…

An epidemiological model which incorporates synergistic effects that allow the infectivity and/or susceptibility of hosts to be dependent on the number of infected neighbours is proposed. Constructive synergy induces an exploitative…

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…

We develop a multi-patch and multi-group model that captures the dynamics of an infectious disease when the host is structured into an arbitrary number of groups and interacts into an arbitrary number of patches where the infection takes…

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…