相关论文: Sideward contact tracing in an epidemic model with…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
We consider a threshold epidemic model on a clustered random graph with overlapping communities. In other words, our epidemic model is such that an individual becomes infected as soon as the proportion of her infected neighbors exceeds the…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
We study the interplay of population growth and evolutionary dynamics using a stochastic model based on birth and death events. In contrast to the common assumption of an independent population size, evolution can be strongly affected by…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
In this paper we establish a relation between the spread of infectious diseases and the dynamics of so called M/G/1 queues with processor sharing. The in epidemiology well known relation between the spread of epidemics and branching…
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
When an unprecedented infectious disease with high mortality and transmissibility emerges, immediate usage of vaccines or medicines is hardly available. Thus, many health authorities rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions through…