相关论文: Bayesian Chain Ladder For Cumulative Run-Off Trian…

Random partition models are widely used in Bayesian methods for various clustering tasks, such as mixture models, topic models, and community detection problems. While the number of clusters induced by random partition models has been…

Partial orders are a natural model for the social hierarchies that may constrain "queue-like" rank-order data. However, the computational cost of counting the linear extensions of a general partial order on a ground set with more than a few…

We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled…

For two vast families of mixture distributions and a given prior, we provide unified representations of posterior and predictive distributions. Model applications presented include bivariate mixtures of Gamma distributions labelled as…

We consider random Hermitian matrices with independent upper triangular entries. Wigner's semicircle law says that under certain additional assumptions, the empirical spectral distribution converges to the semicircle distribution. We…

We consider a Bayesian hierarchical version of the normal theory general linear model which is practically relevant in the sense that it is general enough to have many applications and it is not straightforward to sample directly from the…

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

In this paper, we introduce a new probability distribution, the Lasso distribution. We derive several fundamental properties of the distribution, including closed-form expressions for its moments and moment-generating function.…

Prediction of outstanding claims has been done via nonparametric models (chain ladder), semiparametric models (overdispersed poisson) or fully parametric models. In this paper, we propose models based on negative binomial distributions for…

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in…

A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…

Heavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases…

We consider a continuous time two-armed bandit problem in which incomes are described by Poissonian processes. We develop Bayesian approach with arbitrary prior distribution. We present two versions of recursive equation for determination…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

Bayesian inverse problems use data to update a prior probability distribution on uncertain parameter values to a posterior distribution. Such problems arise in many structural engineering applications, but computational solution of Bayesian…

Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we…