相关论文: Bayesian Chain Ladder For Cumulative Run-Off Trian…

A government has to finance a risk for its population. It shares the charges among the population with a fixed scale based on economic criteria. Various organisms have to collect and to redistribute fairly the subsidies. Under these…

This paper considers the problem of regression over distributions, which is becoming increasingly important in machine learning. Existing approaches often ignore the geometry of the probability space or are computationally expensive. To…

Bayesian averaging over classification models allows the uncertainty of classification outcomes to be evaluated, which is of crucial importance for making reliable decisions in applications such as financial in which risks have to be…

For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

This article describes mathematical methods for estimating the top-tail of the wealth distribution and therefrom the share of total wealth that the richest $p$ percent hold, which is an intuitive measure of inequality. As the data base for…

We study objective Bayesian inference for linear regression models with residual errors distributed according to the class of two-piece scale mixtures of normal distributions. These models allow for capturing departures from the usual…

An intensive research sprang up for stochastic methods in insurance during the past years. To meet all future claims rising from policies, it is requisite to quantify the outstanding loss liabilities. Loss reserving methods based on…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

This paper considers an insurer with two collaborating business lines that must make three critical decisions: (1) dividend payout, (2) a combination of proportional and excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage, and (3) capital injection between…

This paper proposes three types of Bayesian CART (or BCART) models for aggregate claim amount, namely, frequency-severity models, sequential models and joint models. We propose a general framework for the BCART models applicable to data…

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…

The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…

In this paper we propose an objective Bayesian estimation approach for the parameters of the generalized gamma distribution. Various reference priors are obtained, but showing that they lead to improper posterior distributions. We overcome…

This paper proposes a scoring-rule-based method for ranking predictive distributions in the Fr\'echet domain that is able to distinguish between different tail indices. The approach is built on normalized order statistics and exploits…

Standard Bayesian analyses can be difficult to perform when the full likelihood, and consequently the full posterior distribution, is too complex and difficult to specify or if robustness with respect to data or to model misspecifications…

Computer models are widely used in science and engineering to simulate complex systems. However, these models are affected by several sources of uncertainty, which may limit their use for decision making in risk management. We present a…

We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key…

Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…