相关论文: Structured Estimation of Heterogeneous Time Series

Longitudinal data often involve heterogeneity, sparse signals, and contamination from response outliers or high-leverage observations especially in biomedical science. Existing methods usually address only part of this problem, either…

In modern randomized experiments, large-scale data collection increasingly yields rich baseline covariates and auxiliary information from multiple sources. Such information offers opportunities for more precise treatment effect estimation,…

While existing multivariate time series forecasting models have advanced significantly in modeling periodicity, they largely neglect the periodic heterogeneity common in real-world data, where variables exhibit distinct and dynamically…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on…

Modern multivariate machine learning and statistical methodologies estimate parameters of interest while leveraging prior knowledge of the association between outcome variables. The methods that do allow for estimation of relationships do…

Multivariate time series classification is a task with increasing importance due to the proliferation of new problems in various fields (economy, health, energy, transport, crops, etc.) where a large number of information sources are…

Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…

There is currently an increasing interest in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. VARs are popular tools for macroeconomic forecasting and use of larger models has been demonstrated to often improve the forecasting ability compared to…

Heterogeneous data are now ubiquitous in many applications in which correctly identifying the subgroups from a heterogeneous population is critical. Although there is an increasing body of literature on subgroup detection, existing methods…

While artificial neural networks excel in unsupervised learning of non-sparse structure, classical statistical regression techniques offer better interpretability, in particular when sparseness is enforced by $\ell_1$ regularization,…

A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…

Mixed spatial autoregressive (SAR) models with numerical covariates have been well studied. However, as non-numerical data, such as functional data and compositional data, receive substantial amounts of attention and are applied to…

Autoregressive attention-based time series forecasting (TSF) has drawn increasing interest, with mechanisms like linear attention sometimes outperforming vanilla attention. However, deeper Transformer architectures frequently misalign with…

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…

The main aim of this paper is to review recent advances in the multivariate autoregressive index model [MAI], originally proposed by Reinsel (1983), and their applications to economic and financial time series. MAI has recently gained…

Accurate uncertainty estimates can significantly improve the performance of iterative design of experiments, as in Sequential and Reinforcement learning. For many such problems in engineering and the physical sciences, the design task…