相关论文: Structured Estimation of Heterogeneous Time Series

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…

Longitudinal data analysis is fundamental for understanding dynamic processes in biomedical and social sciences. Although varying coefficient models (VCMs) provide a flexible framework by allowing covariate effects to evolve over time,…

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this…

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from…

We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…

In healthcare applications, temporal variables that encode movement, health status and longitudinal patient evolution are often accompanied by rich structured information such as demographics, diagnostics and medical exam data. However,…

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S.…

Large-scale {\it in vitro} drug sensitivity screens are an important tool in personalized oncology to predict the effectiveness of potential cancer drugs. The prediction of the sensitivity of cancer cell lines to a panel of drugs is a…

In this paper, we propose Total Variation Regularized Tensor-on-scalar Regression(TVTR), a novel method for estimating the association between a tensor outcome (a one dimensional or multidimensional array) and scalar predictors. While the…

In the study of complex physical and physiological systems represented by multivariate time series, an issue of great interest is the description of the system dynamics over a range of different temporal scales. While information-theoretic…

Time-varying parameter vector autoregression provides a flexible framework to capture structural changes within time series. However, when applied to high-dimensional data, this model encounters challenges of over-parametrization and…

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Studies often estimate associations between an outcome and multiple variates. For example, studies of diagnostic test accuracy estimate sensitivity and specificity, and studies of predictive and prognostic factors typically estimate…

We clarify relationships between conditional (CAR) and simultaneous (SAR) autoregressive models. We review the literature on this topic and find that it is mostly incomplete. Our main result is that a SAR model can be written as a unique…

In this paper we consider the problem of a measure that allows us to describe the spatial and temporal dependence structure of multivariate time series with innovations having infinite variance. By using recent results obtained in the…

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile…