相关论文: Granger Causal Inference in Multivariate Hawkes Pr…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a recent example for the spread of a harmful contagion in large populations. Moreover, the spread of harmful contagions is not only restricted to an infectious disease, but is also relevant to computer viruses…

We present a theoretically grounded Gaussian process framework that leverages neural feature maps to construct expressive kernels. We show that the learned feature map can be interpreted as an optimal low-rank approximation to a Gram matrix…

Classical causal models, such as Granger causality and structural equation modeling, are largely restricted to acyclic interactions and struggle to represent cyclic and higher-order dynamics in complex networks. We introduce a causal…

Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a versatile algorithm for sampling from target distributions which are not easy to evaluate point-wise. However, pmMH requires good proposal distributions to sample efficiently from the target,…

We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks efficiently represent large multi-variate probability distributions. They are preferred in practice over other probabilistic representations such as Bayesian and Markov networks…

We document regime-dependent predictive structure between equity factors using 35 years of Fama-French data (1990-2024). We find that Value (HML) Granger-causes Size (SMB) during crisis regimes (p < 1e-4, 9-day lag) but not during normal…

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…

We consider a Bayesian approach to model selection in Gaussian linear regression, where the number of predictors might be much larger than the number of observations. From a frequentist view, the proposed procedure results in the penalized…

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…

The Hawkes process models self-exciting event streams, requiring a strictly non-negative and stable stochastic intensity. Standard identification methods enforce these properties using non-negative causal bases, yielding conservative…

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are often used to estimate causal effects of treatments on survival time outcomes from observational data when time-dependent confounding may be present. They can be fitted using, e.g., inverse probability…

Model predictive control (MPC) is an optimal control method that predicts the future states of the system being controlled and estimates the optimal control inputs that drive the predicted states to the required reference. The computations…

Granger causality (GC) is often considered not an actual form of causality. Still, it is arguably the most widely used method to assess the predictability of a time series from another one. Granger causality has been widely used in many…

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the common marginal density function of weakly dependent processes. The accuracy of estimation is measured using pointwise risks. We propose a datadriven procedure using kernel rules. The bandwidth…

Most point process models for earthquakes currently in the literature assume the magnitude distribution is i.i.d. potentially hindering the ability of the model to describe the main features of data sets containing multiple earthquake…

Gaussian processes (GP) for machine learning have been studied systematically over the past two decades and they are by now widely used in a number of diverse applications. However, GP kernel design and the associated hyper-parameter…

A Gaussian process (GP) is a powerful and widely used regression technique. The main building block of a GP regression is the covariance kernel, which characterizes the relationship between pairs in the random field. The optimization to…

Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators in their various forms, including the popular Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, are frequently applied for the evaluation of complex econometric models with not analytically computable moment…