相关论文: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has re-energized research into general artificial intelligence. While the idea of domain-agnostic meta-learning is appealing, this emerging field must come to terms with its relationship…

Large language models (LLMs) remain broadly open and highly steerable: they imitate at scale, accept arbitrary system prompts, and readily adopt multiple personae. By analogy to human development, we hypothesize that progress toward…

Developments in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and particularly large language models (LLMs), have created a 'perfect storm' for observing 'sparks' of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that are spurious. Like simpler models,…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is progressing rapidly, and companies are shifting their focus to developing generalist AI systems that can autonomously act and pursue goals. Increases in capabilities and autonomy may soon massively amplify…

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as large language models (LLMs), has become a transformative force across science, industry, and society. As these systems grow in popularity, web data becomes increasingly interwoven with this…

Superhuman artificial general intelligence could be created this century and would likely be a significant source of existential risk. Delaying the creation of superintelligent AI (ASI) could decrease total existential risk by increasing…

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a wide range of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming…

As progress in AI continues to advance, it is important to know how advanced systems will make choices and in what ways they may fail. Machines can already outsmart humans in some domains, and understanding how to safely build ones which…

In this study, we explored the progression trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) systems through the lens of complexity theory. We challenged the conventional linear and exponential projections of AI advancement toward Artificial…

Artificial intelligence (AI) represents a technological upheaval with the potential to change human society. Because of its transformative potential, AI is increasingly becoming subject to regulatory initiatives at the global level. Yet, so…

Artificial intelligence (AI) faces a trifecta of grand challenges: the Energy Wall, the Alignment Problem and the Leap from Narrow AI to AGI. We present SAGI, a Systematic Approach to AGI that utilizes system design principles to overcome…

The alignment between human objectives and machine learning models built on these objectives is a crucial yet challenging problem for achieving Trustworthy AI, particularly when preparing for superintelligence (SI). First, given that SI…

The article analyses foundational principles relevant to the creation of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Intelligence is understood as the ability to create novel skills that allow to achieve goals under previously unknown…

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has taken a tight hold on broad aspects of society, industry, business, and governance in ways that dictate the prosperity and might of the world's economies. The AI market size is projected to grow…

This paper presents a substantially reworked examination of how advanced game-theoretic paradigms can serve as a foundation for the next-generation challenges in Artificial Intelligence (AI), forecasted to arrive in or around 2025. Our…

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is set to profoundly impact the oil and gas industry by introducing unprecedented efficiencies and innovations. This paper explores AGI's foundational principles and its transformative applications,…

Understanding public perception of artificial intelligence (AI) and the tradeoffs between potential risks and benefits is crucial, as these perceptions might shape policy decisions, influence innovation trajectories for successful market…

We derive the first closed-form condition under which artificial intelligence (AI) capital profits could sustainably finance a universal basic income (UBI) without relying on new taxation or the creation of new jobs. In a Solow-Zeira…

Many high-stakes AI deployments proceed only if every stakeholder deems the system acceptable relative to their own minimum standard. With randomization over a finite menu of options, this becomes a feasibility question: does there exist a…

In the pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI), we tackle Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) tasks using a novel two-pronged approach. We employ the Decision Transformer in an imitation learning paradigm to model human…