相关论文: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

In the last year or so and going back many decades there has been extensive claims by major computational scientists, engineers, and others that AGI, artificial general intelligence, is five or ten years away, but without a scintilla of…

This paper argues that at a certain point in research toward AGI, the problem may become well-enough theorized that a clear roadmap exists for achieving it, such that a Manhattan Project-like effort could greatly shorten the time to…

In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting…

This chapter presents perspectives for challenges and future development in building reliable AI systems, particularly, agentic AI systems. Several open research problems related to mitigating the risks of cascading failures are discussed.…

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is closer than ever to becoming a reality, sparking widespread enthusiasm in the research community to collect and work with various modalities, including text, image, video, and audio. Despite recent…

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) is transforming how firms create, process, and apply knowledge, yet little is known about the heterogeneity of its productivity effects across users. We report results from a randomized controlled…

We want artificial intelligence (AI) to be beneficial. This is the grounding assumption of most of the attitudes towards AI research. We want AI to be "good" for humanity. We want it to help, not hinder, humans. Yet what exactly this…

The recent leap in AI capabilities, driven by big generative models, has sparked the possibility of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and further triggered discussions on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)-a system surpassing…

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as a transformative force that presents a paradox; it offers unprecedented opportunities for productivity growth while potentially posing significant threats to economic stability and societal…

What is the prospect of developing artificial general intelligence (AGI)? I investigate this question by systematically comparing living and algorithmic systems, with a special focus on the notion of "agency." There are three fundamental…

Recent AI progress has outpaced expectations, with some experts now predicting AI that matches or exceeds human capabilities in all cognitive areas (AGI) could emerge this decade, potentially posing grave national and global security…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping many societal domains, raising critical questions about its risks, benefits, and the potential misalignment between public and academic perspectives. This study examines how the general public…

AI for Social Impact (AI4SI) has achieved compelling results in public health, conservation, and security, yet scaling these successes remains difficult due to a persistent deployment bottleneck. We characterize this bottleneck through…

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape the way individuals communicate and interact. While this form of AI has the potential to efficiently make numerous human decisions, there is limited understanding of how…

We here analyse the question of developing artificial consciousness from an evolutionary perspective, taking the evolution of the human brain and its relation with consciousness as a reference model. This kind of analysis reveals several…

Intelligence is a crucial trait for species to find solutions within a limited number of trial-and-error attempts. Building on this idea, we introduce Survival Game as a framework to evaluate intelligence based on the number of failed…

Artificial Intelligence is widely regarded as a transformative force with the potential to redefine numerous sectors of human civilization. While Artificial Intelligence has evolved from speculative fiction to a pivotal element of…

The recent successes of AI have captured the wildest imagination of both the scientific communities and the general public. Robotics and AI amplify human potentials, increase productivity and are moving from simple reasoning towards…

The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI) technologies raises concerns about the accountability of sociotechnical systems. Current generative AI systems rely on complex mechanisms that make it difficult for even…

Researchers worried about catastrophic risks from advanced AI have argued that we should expect sufficiently capable AI agents to pursue power over humanity because power is a convergent instrumental goal, something that is useful for a…