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It is a fundamental question in disease modelling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. Research in this topic has primarily concentrated on finding the seed configuration which…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-11-16 Gergely Ódor , Domonkos Czifra , Júlia Komjáthy , László Lovász , Márton Karsai

We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant…

概率论 · 数学 2014-09-24 Svante Janson , Malwina Luczak , Peter Windridge

To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…

动力系统 · 数学 2024-07-03 Saswata Das , Mohammad Hossein Samaei , Caterina Scoglio

In this paper, we study the trajectory of a classic SIR epidemic on a family of dynamic random graphs of fixed size, whose set of edges continuously evolves over time. We set general infection and recovery times, and start the epidemic from…

概率论 · 数学 2025-01-17 Marta Milewska , Remco van der Hofstad , Bert Zwart

We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2016-04-06 Takehisa Hasegawa , Koji Nemoto

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…

概率论 · 数学 2021-05-14 David Clancy

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

概率论 · 数学 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…

概率论 · 数学 2025-05-16 Wenze Chen , Yuewen Hou , Dong Yao

We study a simple model of epidemics where an infected node transmits the infection to its neighbors independently with probability $p$. This is also known as the independent cascade or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with fixed…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2021-10-19 Yeganeh Alimohammadi , Christian Borgs , Amin Saberi

We consider Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models on dense dynamic random graphs, in which the joint dynamics of vertices and edges are co-evolutionary, i.e., they influence each other bidirectionally. In particular, edges appear and…

In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…

概率论 · 数学 2018-02-15 Carolina Fransson , Pieter Trapman

We consider an SIR epidemic model propagating on a configuration model network, where the degree distribution of the vertices is given and where the edges are randomly matched. The evolution of the epidemic is summed up into three…

In this paper, we are concerned with SIR epidemics in a random environment on complete graphs, where every edges are assigned with i.i.d. weights. Our main results give large and moderate deviation principles of sample paths of this model.

概率论 · 数学 2020-01-22 Xiaofeng Xue , Yumeng Shen

In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Rui Yang , Bing-Hong Wang , Jie Ren , Wen-Jie Bai , Zhi-Wen Shi , Wen-Xu Wang , Tao Zhou

We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…

概率论 · 数学 2019-01-23 Yufeng Jiang , Remy Kassem , Grayson York , Matthew Junge , Rick Durrett

Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the…

概率论 · 数学 2015-12-23 Svante Janson , Malwina Luczak , Peter Windridge , Thomas House

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2013-12-17 Li Chen , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad , Weiran Cai , Peter Grassberger

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2009-05-14 Joel Miller , Bahman Davoudi , Rafael Meza , Anja Slim , Babak Pourbohloul

We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period…

概率论 · 数学 2018-12-10 Frank Ball

The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favouring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2018-03-21 Peng-Bi Cui , Francesca Colaiori , Claudio Castellano
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