相关论文: Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measur…
A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…
In most of the recent literature on state capacity, the significance of wars in state-building assumes that threats from foreign countries generate common interests among domestic groups, leading to larger investments in state capacity.…
Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern.…
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index had gained considerable traction with both academics and policy practitioners. Here, we analyse news feed data to construct a simple, general measure of uncertainty in the United States using a highly…
We study the problem of what causes prices to change. We define the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and its it informational impact as the…
This study evaluates the scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets using the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor-eigenvalue-based measure of realized volatility. Incorporating Granger causality and network-theoretic analysis…
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in uncertainty as percieved by agents.The study focuses on the comparison between the perception of economic uncertainty by manufacturers and consumers.Since…
Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…
A large body of literature in economics and political science examines the impact of democracy and political freedoms on various outcomes using cross-country comparisons. This paper explores the possibility that any positive impact of…
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the…
Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors…
This paper analyses the risk factors around investing in global supply chain infrastructure: the energy market, investor sentiment, and global shipping costs. It presents portfolio strategies associated with dynamic risks. A time-varying…
Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…
Understanding how market participants react to shocks like scheduled macroeconomic news is crucial for both traders and policymakers. We develop a calibrated data generation process DGP that embeds four stylized trader archetypes retail,…
This paper examines how regulatory interventions in high-frequency financial markets affect price discovery. We focus on Breaking news, where dynamic circuit breakers trigger trading halts immediately after the release of macroeconomic…
Analyzing a comprehensive news dataset, we document that joint news coverage triggers attention contagion, causing temporarily inflated valuations for affected stocks. Tracing SEC EDGAR visits from unique IPs, we provide direct evidence of…
To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables -- constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors -- are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness,…
This paper studies how shocks to global banks' net worth transmit to Emerging Market Economies. Using the identification strategy of Ottonello and Song (2022), which isolates high-frequency surprises to banks' credit supply capacity, we…
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using…
We present empirical evidence on the relationship between demand shocks and price changes, conditional on returns to scale. We find that in industries with decreasing returns to scale, demand increases (which raise costs) correspond to…