相关论文: Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measur…

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of military spending and militarization within a dynamic growth framework. Building on a Keynesian goods-market model, we examine how the allocation of government expenditure between…

The research and development (R&D) phase is essential for fostering innovation and aligns with long-term strategies in both public and private sectors. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) assessing the relationship…

This paper investigates how the granularity of supply-chain data affects the propagation of economic shocks through production networks. Using newly constructed establishment-level supply chains with product-level information links for…

Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…

This paper examines the effects of U.S. presidential election cycles on sectoral stock markets. Using a high-frequency identification approach, I construct a novel "election shock'' series, which captures exogenous surprises in election…

The rapid expansion of digital commerce platforms has amplified the strategic importance of coordinated pricing and inventory management decisions among competing retailers. Motivated by practices on leading e-commerce platforms, we analyze…

Cyber attacks continue to be a cause of concern despite advances in cyber defense techniques. Although cyber attacks cannot be fully prevented, standard decision-making frameworks typically focus on how to prevent them from succeeding,…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

We study a model of two-player bargaining game in the shadow of a preventive trade war that examines why states deliberately maintain trade barriers in the age of globalization. Globalization can induce substantial power shifts between…

The expansion of global production networks has raised many important questions about the interdependence among countries and how future changes in the world economy are likely to affect the countries' positioning in global value chains. We…

The relationship between electricity demand and variables such as economic activity and weather patterns is well established. However, this paper explores the connection between electricity demand and social aspects. It further embeds…

This article reviews the economics literature of, primarily, the last 20 years, that studies the link between income shocks and consumption fluctuations at the household level. We identify three broad approaches through which researchers…

The process of market digitization at the world level and the increasing and extended usage of digital devices reshaped the way consumers employ their leisure time, with the emergence of what can be called digital leisure. This new type of…

We document regime-dependent predictive structure between equity factors using 35 years of Fama-French data (1990-2024). We find that Value (HML) Granger-causes Size (SMB) during crisis regimes (p < 1e-4, 9-day lag) but not during normal…

National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…

In this paper, we design indices of economic fluctuation narratives derived from economic surveys. Companies, governments, and investors rely on key metrics like GDP and industrial production indices to predict economic trends. However,…

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay…

As we can understand with the spread of GVCs, a lot of new questions emerge regarding the measurement of participation and positioning in the globalised production process. The World Development Report (WDR) 2020 explains the GVC phenomenon…

Generative AI has the potential to transform how firms produce output. Yet, credible evidence on how AI is actually substituting for human labor remains limited. In this paper, we study firm-level substitution between contracted online…

In this paper we analyse the effects of information flows in cryptocurrency markets. We first define a cryptocurrency trading network, i.e. the network made using cryptocurrencies as nodes and the Granger causality among their weekly log…