相关论文: A Stochastic Model for the Early Stages of Highly …

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its variants form the foundation of our understanding of the spread of diseases. Here, each agent can be in one of three states (susceptible, infected, or recovered), and transitions…

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

According to the current perception, symptomatic, presymptomatic, and asymptomatic infectious persons can infect the healthy population susceptible to the SARS-Cov-2. More importantly, various reports indicate that the number of…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…

This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…

We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…

The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…

The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…

An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…