相关论文: Age-stratified epidemic model using a latent marke…

In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…

Estimation of division and death rates of lymphocytes in different conditions is vital for quantitative understanding of the immune system. Deuterium, in the form of deuterated glucose or heavy water, can be used to measure rates of…

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…

We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model is a variant of the Hawkes self-exciting process and exhibits similar clustering but without the restriction that the component…

Electronic health records (EHR) contain valuable longitudinal patient-level information, yet most statistical methods reduce the irregular timing of EHR codes into simple counts, thereby discarding rich temporal structure. Existing temporal…

For more than two decades, advances in personalised medicine and precision healthcare have largely been based on genomics and other omics data. These strategies aim to tailor interventions to individual patient profiles, promising greater…

The risk for severe illness and mortality from COVID-19 significantly increases with age. As a result, age-stratified modeling for COVID-19 dynamics is the key to study how to reduce hospitalizations and mortality from COVID-19. By taking…

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

We propose a modelling framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of heterogeneous, multi-scale cellular populations. We illustrate our methodology with a particular example in which we study a population with an oxygen-regulated…

In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…

We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical…

In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…

Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…

Algorithms for identifying the infection states of nodes in a network are crucial for understanding and containing infections. Often, however, only a relatively small set of nodes have a known infection state. Moreover, the length of time…