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In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

The main aim of this paper is to study the moderate deviation principle for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with multiple scales. Specifically, we are interested in the asymptotic estimates of the deviation processes…

概率论 · 数学 2024-09-20 Wei Hong , Ge Li , Shihu Li

Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-01-25 Lea Friedli , Niklas Linde

We consider Mc Kean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs), which are SDEs where the drift and diffusion coefficients depend not only on the state of the unknown process but also on its probability distribution. This type of SDEs…

概率论 · 数学 2019-02-12 Khaled Bahlali , Mohamed Amine Mezerdi , Brahim Mezerdi

We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

概率论 · 数学 2014-04-10 Martin Hairer , Jonathan Weare

Many Monte Carlo (MC) and importance sampling (IS) methods use mixture models (MMs) for their simplicity and ability to capture multimodal distributions. Recently, subtractive mixture models (SMMs), i.e. MMs with negative coefficients, have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-28 Lena Zellinger , Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira , Antonio Vergari

This paper investigates the approximation of invariant measures for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using the Euler-Maruyama (EM) scheme under a monotonicity condition. Firstly, the convergence of the numerical…

概率论 · 数学 2026-04-17 Zhen Wang , Mingyan Wu

In this paper, we present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) version of the Stochastic Gradient (SG) method for optimization under uncertainty, in order to tackle Optimal Control Problems (OCP) where the constraints are described in the form…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-12-30 Matthieu Martin , Fabio Nobile , Panagiotis Tsilifis

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

概率论 · 数学 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

This paper presents a control variate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for efficient sampling from the probability simplex, with a focus on applications in large-scale Bayesian models such as latent Dirichlet allocation. Standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-02 Francesco Barile , Christopher Nemeth

Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems often arise in the field of uncertainty quantification, whereby one seeks to quantify the uncertainty in an eigenvalue, or its eigenfunction. In this paper we present an efficient multilevel quasi-Monte…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-10-07 Alexander D. Gilbert , Robert Scheichl

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

In this article, we propose a new numerical approach to high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) arising in the valuation of exotic derivative securities. The proposed method is extended from Reisinger and Wittum (2007) and…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2013-10-04 Christoph Reisinger , Rasmus Wissmann

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

概率论 · 数学 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

Exploiting stochastic path integral theory, we obtain \emph{by simulation} substantial gains in efficiency for the computation of reaction rates in one-dimensional, bistable, overdamped stochastic systems. Using a well-defined measure of…

计算物理 · 物理学 2016-09-08 Daniel M. Zuckerman , Thomas B. Woolf

Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-09-16 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

We study Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information (EVSI) which measures the expected benefit of gaining additional information for decision making under uncertainty. EVSI is defined as a nested expectation in which…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-10-05 Tomohiko Hironaka , Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda , Howard Thom

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful and commonly used family of numerical methods for sampling from complex probability distributions. As applications of these methods increase in size and complexity, the need for efficient…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-01-31 Colin Cotter , Simon Cotter , Paul Russell