相关论文: Joint modeling of landslide counts and sizes using…

Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure-valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are constructed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a "level,"…

Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…

The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…

To analyse interaction in marked spatio-temporal point processes (MSTPPs), we introduce marked (cross) second-order reduced moment measures and K-functions for general inhomogeneous second-order intensity reweighted stationary MSTPPs. These…

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

Ground motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from…

Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral…

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models…

Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…

In the realm of large-scale spatiotemporal data, abrupt changes are commonly occurring across both spatial and temporal domains. This study aims to address the concurrent challenges of detecting change points and identifying spatial…

Cross-classified data frequently arise in scientific fields such as education, healthcare, and social sciences. A common modeling strategy is to introduce crossed random effects within a regression framework. However, this approach often…

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…

This work introduces a novel approach for generating conditional probabilistic rainfall forecasts with temporal and spatial dependence. A two-step procedure is employed. Firstly, marginal location-specific distributions are jointly…

Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…

We introduce a family of local inhomogeneous mark-weighted summary statistics, of order two and higher, for general marked point processes. Depending on how the involved weight function is specified, these summary statistics capture…

Markov community models have been applied to sessile organisms because such models facilitate estimation of transition probabilities by tracking species occupancy at many fixed observation points over multiple periods of time. Estimation of…