相关论文: Football Group Draw Probabilities and Corrections
Given a parametric polynomial curve $\gamma:[a,b]\rightarrow \mathbb{R}^n$, how can we sample a random point $\mathfrak{x}\in \mathrm{im}(\gamma)$ in such a way that it is distributed uniformly with respect to the arc-length? Unfortunately,…
This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…
We introduce the model of line-up elections which captures parallel or sequential single-winner elections with a shared candidate pool. The goal of a line-up election is to find a high-quality assignment of a set of candidates to a set of…
In this paper, we analyze the set of all possible aggregate distributions of the sum of standard uniform random variables, a simply stated yet challenging problem in the literature of distributions with given margins. Our main results are…
We propose and study a hierarchical algorithm to generate graphs having a predetermined distribution of cliques, the fully connected subgraphs. The construction mechanism may be either random or incorporate preferential attachment. We…
We propose efficient techniques for generating independent identically distributed uniform random samples inside semialgebraic sets. The proposed algorithm leverages recent results on the approximation of indicator functions by polynomials…
The authors give an approximation method for Bayesian inference in arena model, which is focused on paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The approximation method simplifies the inference by reducing parameters and…
We present a rejection method based on recursive covering of the probability density function with equal tiles. The concept works for any probability density function that is pointwise computable or representable by tabular data. By the…
Probability models on graphs are becoming increasingly important in many applications, but statistical tools for fitting such models are not yet well developed. Here we propose a general method of moments approach that can be used to fit a…
When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average…
How to distribute a set of points uniformly on a spherical surface is a very old problem that still lacks a definite answer. In this work, we introduce a physical measure of uniformity based on the distribution of distances between points,…
We investigate the joint distribution of the vertex degrees in three models of random bipartite graphs. Namely, we can choose each edge with a specified probability, choose a specified number of edges, or specify the vertex degrees in one…
In statistical mechanical investigations on complex networks, it is useful to employ random graphs ensembles as null models, to compare with experimental realizations. Motivated by transcription networks, we present here a simple way to…
We propose a versatile joint regression framework for count responses. The method is implemented in the R add-on package GJRM and allows for modelling linear and non-linear dependence through the use of several copulae. Moreover, the…
We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals…
We focus on the problem of finding an optimal strategy for a team of two players that faces an opponent in an imperfect-information zero-sum extensive-form game. Team members are not allowed to communicate during play but can coordinate…
We study discrete probabilistic programs with potentially unbounded looping behaviors over an infinite state space. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first decidability result for the problem of determining whether such a…
Population games model the evolution of strategic interactions among a large number of uniform agents. Due to the agents' uniformity and quantity, their aggregate strategic choices can be approximated by the solutions of a class of ordinary…
We study semiorders induced by points drawn from a uniform random distribution. Of particular interest in this paper are the probabilities of generating specific semiorders and the equivalence classes they produce. We present a method for…
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…