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The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-18 Marcelo Hartmann , Georgi Agiashvili , Paul Bürkner , Arto Klami

We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-07-07 Christian Bartels , Johanna Mielke , Ekkehard Glimm

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-02 R. Noah Padgett , Grant B. Morgan , Tim Lomas

In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 J. Charles , A. Hocker , H. Lacker , F. R. Le Diberder , S. T'Jampens

The simplest models of inflation predict small non-gaussianities and a featureless power spectrum. However, there exist a large number of well-motivated theoretical scenarios in which large non-gaussianties could be generated. In general,…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2015-09-11 Stefano Gariazzo , Laura Lopez-Honorez , Olga Mena

Scale-free networks play a fundamental role in the study of complex networks and various applied fields due to their ability to model a wide range of real-world systems. A key characteristic of these networks is their degree distribution,…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2025-01-14 Nixon Jerez-Lillo , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Paulo H. Ferreira , Pedro L. Ramos

Bayesian hierarchical models are frequently used in practical data analysis contexts. One interpretation of these models is that they provide an indirect way of assigning a prior for unknown parameters, through the introduction of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Brendon J. Brewer

Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-15 Ruchira Ray , Marco Avella Medina , Cynthia Rush

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-27 F. Llorente , L. Martino , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , D. Delgado

Power series distributions form a useful subclass of one-parameter discrete exponential families suitable for modeling count data. A zero-inflated power series distribution is a mixture of a power series distribution and a degenerate…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-12-18 Archan Bhattacharya , Bertrand S. Clarke , Gauri S. Datta

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-06 Riko Kelter , Samuel Pawel

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction. Bayesian approaches to these models often place a prior on the factor loadings that allows for infinitely many factors, with loadings increasingly shrunk toward zero as the column index…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-31 Shicheng Liu , Qingping Zhou , Yanan Fan , Xiongwen Ke

We present a Bayesian analysis of large-scale structure and cosmic microwave background data to constrain the form of the primordial power spectrum. We have extended the usual presumption of a scale invariant spectrum to include: (i) a…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-11 M. Bridges , A. N. Lasenby , M. P. Hobson

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

There is a wide variety of models in which the dimension of the parameter space is unknown. For example, in factor analysis the number of latent factors is typically not known and has to be inferred from the observed data. Although…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-11 Sirio Legramanti , Daniele Durante , David B. Dunson

Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the gold standard for evidence generation in relation to the efficacy of a new treatment in medical research. Relevant information from previous studies may be desirable to incorporate in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-29 Lou E. Whitehead , James M. S. Wason , Oliver Sailer , Haiyan Zheng

Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-03-07 Jushan Bai , Serena Ng

Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-05-01 David C. Kessler , Peter D. Hoff , David B. Dunson

The probability of default (PD) estimation is an important process for financial institutions. The difficulty of the estimation depends on the correlations between borrowers. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian estimation…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-05-19 Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

The power prior is a popular class of informative priors for incorporating information from historical data. It involves raising the likelihood for the historical data to a power, which acts as a discounting parameter. When the discounting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-26 Yueqi Shen , Matthew A. Psioda , Luiz M. Carvalho , Joseph G. Ibrahim