相关论文: A Study on the Power Parameter in Power Prior Baye…

Determining an appropriate sample size is a critical element of study design, and the method used to determine it should be consistent with the planned analysis. When the planned analysis involves Bayes factor hypothesis testing, the sample…

The objective Bayesian treatment of a model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered. It is shown that the…

We consider reinforcement learning in parameterized Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the parameterization may induce correlation across transition probabilities or rewards. Consequently, observing a particular state transition might…

We consider a class of real numbers, a subset of irrational numbers and certain mathematical constants, for which the elements in the simple continued fraction appears to be random. As an illustrative example, one can consider $\pi = \{x_0,…

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Many natural processes exhibit power-law behavior. The power-law exponent is linked to the underlying physical process and therefore its precise value is of interest. With respect to the energy content of nanoflares, for example, a…

Classification approaches based on the direct estimation and analysis of posterior probabilities will degrade if the original class priors begin to change. We prove that a unique (up to scale) solution is possible to recover the data…

Bayesian inference for statistical models with a hierarchical structure is often characterized by specification of priors for parameters at different levels of the hierarchy. When higher level parameters are functions of the lower level…

Following the critical review of Seaman et al. (2012), we reflect on what is presumably the most essential aspect of Bayesian statistics, namely the selection of a prior density. In some cases, Bayesian inference remains fairly stable under…

Bayes' rule has enabled innumerable powerful algorithms of statistical signal processing and statistical machine learning. However, when model misspecifications exist in prior and/or data distributions, the direct application of Bayes' rule…

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating…

A product of two Gaussians (or normal distributions) is another Gaussian. That's a valuable and useful fact! Here we use it to derive a refactoring of a common product of multivariate Gaussians: The product of a Gaussian likelihood times a…

The method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is guided by intuition gained from the…

This paper argues that the half-Cauchy distribution should replace the inverse-Gamma distribution as a default prior for a top-level scale parameter in Bayesian hierarchical models, at least for cases where a proper prior is necessary. Our…

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…

In this paper, we obtain some factorization results on formal power series over principle ideal domains with sharp bounds on number of irreducible factors. These factorization results correspondingly lead to irreducibility criteria for…

Generalized Bayes posterior distributions are formed by putting a fractional power on the likelihood before combining with the prior via Bayes's formula. This fractional power, which is often viewed as a remedy for potential model…

We show that it can be suboptimal for Bayesian decision-making agents employing social learning to use correct prior probabilities as their initial beliefs. We consider sequential Bayesian binary hypothesis testing where each individual…