相关论文: A Study on the Power Parameter in Power Prior Baye…

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior…

We characterize the maximal attainable power-size gap in overidentified instrumental variables models with heteroskedastic or autocorrelated (HAC) errors. Using total variation distance and Kraft's theorem, we define the decision theoretic…

Science can be seen as a sequential process where each new study augments evidence to the existing knowledge. To have the best prospects to make an impact in this process, a new study should be designed optimally taking into account the…

Bayes factors are characterized by both the powerful mathematical framework of Bayesian statistics and the useful interpretation as evidence quantification. Former requires a parameter distribution that changes by seeing the data, latter…

Combining Planck CMB temperature [1] and BICEP2 B-mode polarization data [2,3] we show qualitatively that, assuming inflationary consistency relation, the power-law form of the scalar primordial spectrum is ruled out at more than $3\sigma$…

Bayesian variable selection often assumes normality, but the effects of model misspecification are not sufficiently understood. There are sound reasons behind this assumption, particularly for large $p$: ease of interpretation, analytical…

We are interested in the estimation and prediction of a parametric model on a short dataset upon which it is expected to overfit and perform badly. To overcome the lack of data (relatively to the dimension of the model) we propose the…

This paper develops a framework to study the statistical power of revealed-preference tests. With randomly sampled budgets and mild smoothness of demand, statistical learning implies that any model consistent with the data must approximate…

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when…

We propose a method for setting limits that avoids excluding parameter values for which the sensitivity falls below a specified threshold. These "power-constrained" limits (PCL) address the issue that motivated the widely used CLs…

Possible parameter values in a random sampling model are shown by definition to have uniform base-rate prior probabilities. This allows a frequentist posterior probability distribution to be calculated for such possible parameter values…

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

In this paper, we propose a regression model where the response variable is beta prime distributed using a new parameterization of this distribution that is indexed by mean and precision parameters. The proposed regression model is useful…

We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive…

Matrix factorization exploits the idea that, in complex high-dimensional data, the actual signal typically lies in lower-dimensional structures. These lower dimensional objects provide useful insight, with interpretability favored by sparse…

In this work we explore the power of future large-scale surveys to constrain possible deviations from the standard single-field slow-roll inflationary scenario. Specifically, we parametrize possible fluctuations around the almost…

Lack of independence in the residuals from linear regression motivates the use of random effect models in many applied fields. We start from the one-way anova model and extend it to a general class of one-factor Bayesian mixed models,…

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

If we have an unbiased estimate of some parameter of interest, then its absolute value is positively biased for the absolute value of the parameter. This bias is large when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is small, and it becomes even…