相关论文: Predicting Cricket Outcomes using Bayesian Priors

Though athletics statistics are abundant, it is a difficult task to quantitatively compare performances from different events of track, field, and road running in a meaningful way. There are several commonly-used methods, but each has its…

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

The Pythagorean Expected Wins Percentage Model was developed by Bill James to estimate a baseball team expected wins percentage over the course of a season. As such, the model can be used to assess how lucky or unfortunate a team was over…

Shot charts in basketball analytics provide an indispensable tool for evaluating players' shooting performance by visually representing the distribution of field goal attempts across different court locations. However, conventional methods…

League of Legends (LoL) is the most widely played multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game in the world. An important aspect of LoL is competitive ranked play, which utilizes a skill-based matchmaking system to form fair teams. However,…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

The analysis of income and wealth inequality is often constrained by the lack of reliable data. In this work, we introduce a proxy-based approach in which sports performance data are used to mimic economic distributions. In particular, the…

Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…

Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…

Predicting the future direction of community evolution is a problem with high theoretical and practical significance. It allows to determine which characteristics describing communities have importance from the point of view of their future…

Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across…

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian…

In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

In recent years, there has been increased interest in video summarization and automatic sports highlights generation. In this work, we introduce a new dataset, called SNOW, for umpire pose detection in the game of cricket. The proposed…

This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…

In recent days, the number of technology enthusiasts is increasing day by day with the prevalence of technological products and easy access to the internet. Similarly, the amount of people working behind this rapid development is rising…

We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical…

Clinical trials usually involve sequential patient entry. When designing a clinical trial, it is often desirable to include a provision for interim analyses of accumulating data with the potential for stopping the trial early. We review…