相关论文: Predicting Cricket Outcomes using Bayesian Priors

We develop a Markov model of curling matches, parametrised by the probability of winning an end and the probability distribution of scoring ends. In practical applications, these end-winning probabilities can be estimated econometrically,…

In the sport of cricket, the side that wins the toss and has the first choice to bat or bowl can have an unfair or a critical advantage. The issue has been discussed by International Cricket Council committees, as well as several cricket…

The emerging progress of eSports lacks the tools for ensuring high-quality analytics and training in Pro and amateur eSports teams. We report on an Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled solution for predicting the eSports player in-game…

Modern society is full of computational challenges that rely on probabilistic reasoning, statistics, and combinatorics. Interestingly, many of these questions can be formulated by encoding them into propositional formulas and then asking…

In this work, we deal with the problem of rating in sports, where the skills of the players/teams are inferred from the observed outcomes of the games. Our focus is on the online rating algorithms which estimate the skills after each new…

Three state-of-the-art statistical ranking methods for forecasting football matches are combined with several other predictors in a hybrid machine learning model. Namely an ability estimate for every team based on historic matches; an…

Cluster analysis aims at partitioning data into groups or clusters. In applications, it is common to deal with problems where the number of clusters is unknown. Bayesian mixture models employed in such applications usually specify a…

Background: The uptake of formalized prior elicitation from experts in Bayesian clinical trials has been limited due to challenges such as complex statistical modeling, lack of practical tools, and the cognitive burden placed on experts…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

We introduce Bayesimax theory, a paradigm for objective Bayesian analysis which selects priors by applying minimax theory to prior disclosure games. In these games, the uniquely optimal strategy for a Bayesian agent upon observing the data…

This paper presents a study on the prediction of outcomes in matches of the electronic game League of Legends (LoL) using machine learning techniques. With the aim of exploring the ability to predict real-time results, considering different…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry…

This article demonstrates a new approach to finding ideal bowling targeting strategies through computer simulation. To model bowling ball behaviour, a system of five coupled differential equations is derived using Euler equations for rigid…

The iterated prisoner's dilemma is a game that produces many counter-intuitive and complex behaviors in a social environment, based on very simple basic rules. It illustrates that cooperation can be a good thing even in a competitive world,…

We study the effects of randomness on competitions based on an elementary random process in which there is a finite probability that a weaker team upsets a stronger team. We apply this model to sports leagues and sports tournaments, and…

We consider all Test matches played between 1877 and 2010 and One Day International (ODI) matches played between 1971 and 2010. We form directed and weighted networks of teams and also of their captains. The success of a team (or captain)…

Duckworth-Lewis (D/L) method is the incumbent rain rule used to decide the result of a limited overs cricket match should it not be able to reach its natural conclusion. Duckworth and Lewis (1998) devised a two factor relationship between…

Many computational problems in modern society account to probabilistic reasoning, statistics, and combinatorics. A variety of these real-world questions can be solved by representing the question in (Boolean) formulas and associating the…

Doctors often rely on their past experience in order to diagnose patients. For a doctor with enough experience, almost every patient would have similarities to key cases seen in the past, and each new patient could be viewed as a mixture of…