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Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-06-17 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-02-25 Jacob Steinhardt , Percy Liang

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

统计计算 · 统计学 2007-11-02 Ajay Jasra , David A. Stephens , Chris C. Holmes

Phylogenetic inference is an intractable statistical problem on a complex space. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are the primary tool for Bayesian phylogenetic inference but it is challenging to construct efficient schemes to explore the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-11 Luke J. Kelly , Robin J. Ryder , Grégoire Clarté

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a widely used algorithm design scheme with many applications. To make efficient use of this method, the key step is to prove that the Markov chain is rapid mixing. Canonical paths is one of the two…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2015-10-15 Lingxiao Huang , Pinyan Lu , Chihao Zhang

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-12-16 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni , Flavio Prattico

We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-07-30 Tobias Siems

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide consistent of integrals as the number of iterations goes to infinity. MCMC estimators are generally biased after any fixed number of iterations. We propose to remove this bias by using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-18 Pierre E. Jacob , John O'Leary , Yves F. Atchadé

We present a new way of converting a reversible finite Markov chain into a non-reversible one, with a theoretical guarantee that the asymptotic variance of the MCMC estimator based on the non-reversible chain is reduced. The method is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-09-27 Yi Sun , Faustino Gomez , Juergen Schmidhuber

The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-12 Elie Azeraf

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2024-12-05 Synge Todo

Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) is a popular approach to sample from high dimensional distributions, and the asymptotic variance is a commonly used criterion to evaluate the performance. While most popular MCMC algorithms are reversible,…

概率论 · 数学 2018-02-06 Chi-Hao Wu , Ting-Li Chen

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-05 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-07-10 João Hespanha , Kerem Camsari

We develop off-lattice simulations of semiflexible polymer chains subjected to applied mechanical forces using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our approach models the polymer as a chain of fixed-length bonds, with configurations updated through…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2024-11-26 Lijie Ding , Chi-Huan Tung , Bobby G. Sumpter , Wei-Ren Chen , Changwoo Do

Bayesian inference of Gibbs random fields (GRFs) is often referred to as a doubly intractable problem, since the likelihood function is intractable. The exploration of the posterior distribution of such models is typically carried out with…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-16 Aidan Boland , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We present a Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method to make a geometric graph which satisfies the following two conditions: (i) The degree of each vertex is fixed to a positive integer $k$. (ii) The probability that two vertices located on…

统计力学 · 物理学 2020-10-28 Munetaka Sasaki

We study distributed versions of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for generating random $k$-colorings of an input graph with maximum degree $\Delta$. In the sequential setting, the Glauber dynamics is the simple MCMC algorithm…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2025-07-29 Charlie Carlson , Daniel Frishberg , Eric Vigoda

Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-04-28 Manon Michel , Alain Durmus , Stéphane Sénécal