相关论文: Stochastic SICA Epidemic Model with Jump L\'{e}vy …
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
We establish a stochastic HIV/AIDS model for the individuals with protection awareness and reveal how the protection awareness plays its important role in the control of AIDS. We firstly show that there exists a global positive solution for…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
Continuous-time stochastic systems have attracted a lot of attention recently, due to their wide-spread use in finance for modelling price-dynamics. More recently models taking into accounts shocks have been developed by assuming that the…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
This paper studies stabilities of stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by time-changed L\'evy noise in both probability and moment sense. This provides more flexibility in modeling schemes in application areas including physics,…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
A standard approach to analysis of noise-induced effects in stochastic dynamics assumes a Gaussian character of the noise term describing interaction of the analyzed system with its complex surroundings. An additional assumption about the…
L\'evy stable (jump-type) processes are examples of intrinsically nonlocal random motions. This property becomes a serious obstacle if one attempts to model conditions under which a particular L\'evy process may be subject to physically…
Recently, extracting data-driven governing laws of dynamical systems through deep learning frameworks has gained a lot of attention in various fields. Moreover, a growing amount of research work tends to transfer deterministic dynamical…
We provide asymptotic results and develop high frequency statistical procedures for time-changed L\'evy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by first hitting times of symmetric barriers whose distance with…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
We study robust nonlinear filtering for stochastic models driven by L\'evy processes, where the signal and observation processes are coupled through common Brownian and jump noise. Robustness, defined as the continuous dependence of the…