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We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Background/aims: While randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects, robust conclusions about causal relationships can be obtained using data from observational studies if proper statistical techniques are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-10 Andreas Markoulidakis , Peter Holmans , Philip Pallmann , Monica Busse , Beth-Ann Griffin

Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-20 Vibhhu Sharma , Bryan Wilder

In longitudinal studies using routinely collected data, such as electronic health records (EHRs), patients tend to have more measurements when they are unwell; this informative observation pattern may lead to bias. While semi-parametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-02 Rose Garrett , Brian Feldman , Eleanor Pullenayegum

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from time-to-event data in the presence of competing events. Albeit its great practical relevance, this problem has received little attention compared to its…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-27 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

The aim is to create a method for accurately estimating the duration of post-cancer treatment, particularly focused on chemotherapy, to optimize patient care and recovery. This initiative seeks to improve the effectiveness of cancer…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2025-04-24 Joyee Chakraborty , Mazahrul Islam Tohin , Danbir Rashid , Tanjil Ahmed Tanmoy , Md. Jehadul Islam Mony

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example,…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-09-08 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

We present a new machine learning approach to estimate personalized treatment effects in the classical potential outcomes framework with binary outcomes. To overcome the problem that both treatment and control outcomes for the same unit are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-05-07 Siong Thye Goh , Cynthia Rudin

We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-12-13 Yanbo Xu , Yanxun Xu , Suchi Saria

Patients often discontinue treatment in a clinical trial because their health condition is not improving. Consequently, the patients still in the study at the end of the trial have better health outcomes on average than the initial patient…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-06 Alex Ocampo , Heinz Schmidli , Peter Quarg , Francesca Callegari , Marcello Pagano

When to initiate treatment on patients is an important problem in many medical studies such as AIDS and cancer. In this article, we formulate the treatment initiation time problem for time-to-event data and propose an optimal individualized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-30 Xin Chen , Rui Song , Jiajia Zhang , Swann Arp Adams , Liuquan Sun , Wenbin Lu

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covariates and seek to use this information to personalize…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-07 Sheyu Li , Valentyn Litvin , Charles F. Manski

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) treatment presents high individual-level heterogeneity, with outcomes ranging from complete abstinence to persistent heavy drinking. This variability-driven by complex behavioral, social, and environmental…

Missing observations are common in cluster randomised trials. Approaches taken to handling such missing data include: complete case analysis, single-level multiple imputation that ignores the clustering, multiple imputation with a fixed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-07-18 Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Michael G. Kenward , Manuel Gomes , Richard Grieve

Time-to-event (survival) analysis models the time until a pre-specified event occurs. When time is measured in discrete units or rounded into intervals, standard continuous-time models can yield biased estimators. In addition, the event of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Tomer Meir , Rom Gutman , Malka Gorfine

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…