相关论文: A Multivariate Dependence Analysis for Electricity…

This paper studies the realizability and compatibility of the three CEP2020 targets, focusing on electricity prices. We study the impact of renewables and other fundamental determinants on wholesale and household retail electricity prices…

Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…

Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly.…

This work examines how the dependence structures between energy futures asset prices differ in two periods identified before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. These two periods were characterised by a difference in the number of…

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…

In the process of decarbonization, the global energy mix is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. To study decarbonization pathways, large-scale energy system models are utilized. These models require accurate data on renewable…

In this paper we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price, hence we analyze bivariate data. We first…

Long-term planning of a robust power system requires the understanding of changing demand patterns. Electricity demand is highly weather sensitive. Thus, the supply side variation from introducing intermittent renewable sources, juxtaposed…

Prospective power supply systems based on Renewable Energy Sources require measures to balance power generation and load at all times. The utilisation of storage devices and backup power plants is widely suggested for this purpose, whereas…

Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…

Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. We therefore propose a generic and easy-to-implement method…

This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications, for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy…

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Electricity markets are significantly more volatile than other comparable financial or commodity markets. Extreme price outcomes and their transmission between regions pose significant risks for market participants. We examine the…

Determining the causes of extreme events is a fundamental question in many scientific fields. An important aspect when modelling multivariate extremes is the tail dependence. In application, the extreme dependence structure may…

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…

The average revenue, or market value, of wind and solar energy tends to fall with increasing market shares, as is now evident across European electricity markets. At the same time, these markets have become more interconnected. In this…

Extreme values modeling has attracting the attention of researchers in diverse areas such as the environment, engineering, or finance. Multivariate extreme value distributions are particularly suitable to model the tails of multidimensional…

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses…