相关论文: Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Explor…

We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…

The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…

In an emerging pandemic, policymakers need to make important decisions with limited information, for example choosing between a mitigation, suppression or elimination strategy. These strategies may require trade-offs to be made between the…

This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…

We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing,…

The mathematical interpretation of interventions for the mitigation of epidemics and pandemics in the literature often involves finding the optimal time to initiate an intervention and/or the use of infections to manage impact. Whilst these…

Controlling the COVID-19 pandemic is an urgent global challenge. The rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 directly reflects the social structure. Before effective vaccines and treatments are widely available, we have to rely on…

When considering many survival models, decisions become more challenging in health economic evaluation. In this paper, we present a set of methods to assist with selecting the most appropriate parametric survival models. The methods…

COVID-19 pandemic has introduced a new lifestyle due to lockdown. The impact was on food habits, working hours, and sleeping patterns. The goal of this study is to detect lifestyle changes caused by confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic,…

Analysis of policies for managing epidemics require simultaneously an economic and epidemiological perspective. We adopt a cost-of-policy framework to model both the virus spread and the cost of handling the pandemic. Because it is harder…

Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Retirement homes are particularly vulnerable due to the higher mortality risk of infected elderly individuals. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of…

Existing strategies for determining the optimal treatment or monitoring strategy typically assume unlimited access to resources. However, when a health system has resource constraints, such as limited funds, access to medication, or…

Real-world clinical decision making is a complex process that involves balancing the risks and benefits of treatments. Quality-adjusted lifetime is a composite outcome that combines patient quantity and quality of life, making it an…

We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…

Countries and cities around the world have resorted to unprecedented mobility restrictions to combat Covid-19 transmission. Here we exploit a natural experiment whereby Colombian cities implemented varied lockdown policies based on ID…

Optimal control problems reflecting the finding of effective quarantine strategies are considered for two control SEIR~type models describing the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the human population. The properties of the corresponding…

Epidemics expose critical tensions between protecting public health and maintaining essential urban mobility. Public transport systems face this dilemma most acutely: they enable access to jobs, education, and services, yet also facilitate…

Pandemic(epidemic) modeling, aiming at disease spreading analysis, has always been a popular research topic especially following the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019. Some representative models including SIR-based deep learning prediction…

In the absence of vaccines, the most widespread reaction to curb COVID-19 pandemic worldwide was the implementation of lockdowns or stay-at-home policies. Despite the reported usefulness of such policies, their efficiency was highly…

Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored…