相关论文: A truncated mean-parameterised Conway-Maxwell-Pois…

Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. In this paper we focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of Test batsmen using data…

In the sport of cricket, player batting ability is traditionally measured using the batting average. However, the batting average fails to measure both short-term changes in ability that occur during an innings, and long-term changes that…

In the sport of cricket, variations in a player's batting ability can usually be measured on one of two scales. Short-term changes in ability that are observed during a single innings, and long-term changes that are witnessed between…

Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distributions are flexible generalizations of the Poisson distribution for modelling overdispersed or underdispersed counts. The main hindrance to their wider use in practice seems to be the inability to…

Count data play a crucial role in sports analytics, providing valuable insights into various aspects of the game. Models that accurately capture the characteristics of count data are essential for making reliable inferences. In this paper,…

There is a widespread notion in cricketing world that with increasing pace the performance of a bowler improves. Additionally, many commentators believe lower order batters to be more vulnerable to pace. The present study puts these two…

Bimodal truncated count distributions are frequently observed in aggregate survey data and in user ratings when respondents are mixed in their opinion. They also arise in censored count data, where the highest category might create an…

We propose a flexible model for count time series which has potential uses for both underdispersed and overdispersed data. The model is based on the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution with parameters varying along time to…

Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable…

Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions represents a challenging suite of problems in modern statistics. In this work we analyse the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution, a two parameter…

This paper proposes a generalized binomial distribution with four parameters, which is derived from the finite capacity queueing system with state-dependent service and arrival rates. This distribution is also generated from the conditional…

Predicting batting averages for specific batters against specific pitchers is a challenging problem in baseball. Previous methods for estimating batting averages in these matchups have used regression models that can incorporate the…

A discrete-time stochastic process derived from a model of basketball is used to generalize any discrete distribution. The generalized distributions can have one or two more parameters than the parent distribution. Those derived from…

A Bayesian Survival Analysis method is motivated and developed for analysing sequences of scores made by a batsman in test or first class cricket. In particular, we expect the presence of an effect whereby the distribution of scores has…

In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution is a natural two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution which has received some attention in the statistics literature in recent years by offering flexible generalisations of some…

We show that the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson distribution can be arbitrarily underdispersed when parametrized via its mean. More precisely, if the mean $\mu$ is an integer then the limiting distribution is a unit probability mass at $\mu$. If…

Advancements in technology have recently allowed us to collect and analyse large-scale fine-grained data about human performance, drastically changing the way we approach sports. Here, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of…

Quantifying individual performance in the game of Cricket is critical for team selection in International matches. The number runs scored by batsmen and wickets taken by bowlers serves as a natural way of quantifying the performance of a…